ISW Data Contradicts Kremlin's Exaggerated Claims of Frontline Gains.

The Kremlin's Information Warfare

According to TSN.ua: The Kremlin is engaged in a cognitive warfare campaign, disseminating claims of significant Russian military successes on the battlefield. However, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assert these declarations are misleading. For instance, Sergey Rudskoy, head of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff, has stated that since the start of 2026, Russia has seized approximately 900 square kilometers of territory and 42 settlements. ISW's data, in stark contrast, points to far more modest gains by Russian forces.

Conflicting Assessments

According to ISW's analysis, Russian troops have captured only 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers since the beginning of 2026. This stands in direct opposition to Rudskoy's claims of 900 square kilometers and 42 settlements. For the year 2025, the Russian General Staff reported capturing over 6,700 square kilometers and more than 300 settlements. Yet, ISW's assessment indicates only 252 settlements were actually seized that year.

As of February 20, 2026, Russian forces are reported to have captured:

• 26 settlements in the Sumy region;
• 15 settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Meanwhile, ISW data indicates the capture of only 19 settlements in total since the start of 2026. In the Zaporizhzhia region, reports suggest Russian troops have taken 99 square kilometers and three new settlements. Since November 2025, Russian advances in western Zaporizhzhia have yielded only two settlements.

Consequently, Russia's claims of territorial progress appear inflated, with the actual results of military operations significantly lower than the Kremlin's official reports. Information from various sources suggests Moscow's attempts to cultivate a positive image of its battlefield achievements do not align with reality. This pattern of discrepancy is a consistent feature of the Kremlin's wartime communications strategy.

These discrepancies between official Russian data and independent analysts' assessments underscore the complexity of the information war that accompanies military conflicts.

In the context of war, information manipulation is often used to bolster troop and civilian morale. It is therefore critical to consult a range of sources to develop a more objective picture of frontline developments.