The Kremlin offers concessions regarding Odesa and Mykolaiv: what Moscow is really planning.

According to ТСН: The Kremlin proposes a non-aggression agreement regarding Odesa and Mykolaiv as a 'concession' in peace talks, although in reality, Russian troops are not in a position to capture these Ukrainian cities.

Statements by Russian Officials

Analysts mention remarks by Alexey Zhuralyov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, who claimed that Russian troops 'can certainly' intensify their activities in the Kherson direction and launch an offensive on Odesa and Mykolaiv. He noted that Ukraine would then 'have no other major cities on the coast of the Black Sea'. According to him, Russian military forces might use occupied Crimea as a starting point for offensive actions 'both on land and at sea'.

Discrimination against Russian Speakers and Referendums

As usual, Putin presents the situation in an uncomfortable light. Zhuralyov also stated that the Ukrainian authorities discriminate against Russian-speaking residents of Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv. He believes that residents of these regions will be able to vote for 'joining' Russia if referendums are held in the areas. In his opinion, similar cases have already occurred in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions.

Analytical View of ISW

The Institute for the Study of War notes that Kremlin officials, including Vladimir Putin, have once again activated old narratives regarding claims on Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. However, these statements are likely part of cognitive-military efforts aimed at influencing peace negotiations.

Analysts emphasize that Russian troops are unable to conduct a large-scale offensive on Odesa or Mykolaiv by either land or sea. To do this, they would have to abandon priorities in other sectors to concentrate a significant group of troops for a successful crossing of the Dnipro and substantial advancement to the west and north, which is an extremely challenging task.

“The Kremlin may set conditions for a 'refusal' of its claims regarding these territories in the future to create an impression that it is making 'concessions' during negotiations,” analysts of the Institute believe.

Negotiation Tactics

Putin has also threatened to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and potentially seize territories in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. The Institute believes that Moscow may attempt to present a non-aggression agreement regarding Ukrainian ports and vessels in the Black Sea as a 'compromise' in negotiations.

“ISW continues to assess that Putin remains committed to his goal of taking control of all of Ukraine. Any likely 'concession' from the Kremlin agreeing to abandon attempts to capture Odesa and Mykolaiv would be a short-term negotiating tactic rather than a change in its longstanding strategic objectives,” analysts summarize in the report.

Putin has also threatened Ukraine with a naval blockade, stating his readiness to expand strikes on Ukrainian maritime infrastructure in response to attacks on Russian tankers. He emphasized that the threat concerns not only the ports but also vessels entering Ukrainian harbors.

Against the backdrop of these escalations, the situation around Odesa and Mykolaiv remains tense. The Kremlin seeks to use peace negotiations as a tool to achieve its geopolitical objectives, despite real military constraints on the ground. This underscores the ongoing threat hanging over Ukrainian cities on the coast of the Black Sea.