Mortality triples the birth rate: demographic crisis in Ukraine.

According to ТСН: Ukraine has been experiencing a persistent demographic crisis for over thirty years, the main feature of which is the constant exceedance of mortality over birth rates.

It is known that the natural decline in population has remained an unchanged trend since the moment of gaining independence, starting from the 1990s. Mortality consistently exceeds birth rates, indicating the presence of a demographic crisis.

Demographic changes

According to experts, between 2002 and 2012 there was an increase in birth rates, a decrease in mortality, and an increase in life expectancy in Ukraine. However, since 2013, negative dynamics returned, and the situation was significantly complicated by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.

“2020-2021 were turning points — mortality sharply increased while birth rates continued to decline. And it is precisely in such a demographically complex situation that the country entered a full-scale war,” says the demographer.

Despite the lack of accurate data due to the absence of a census, specialists estimated that mortality in Ukraine is nearly three times higher than the number of births.

“This is an extremely difficult situation, but it is not catastrophic — some potential is still preserved,” concludes Aksonova.

Population decline

It was previously reported that, according to the head of the Migration Policy Office, Vasyl Voskoboynyk, even before the full-scale invasion, the annual population decline in Ukraine was 250-300 thousand people.

Now, in the fourth year of war, the demographic situation in Ukraine is worsening: mortality already triples birth rates, and the issue of the return of millions of Ukrainians who left remains uncertain.

The demographic situation in Ukraine remains critical, and in the conditions of war, its further development raises serious concerns. The growing mortality and uncertainty regarding the return of millions of Ukrainians who were forced to leave the country pose a threat not only to social but also to economic stability of the state. It is important to find effective solutions to improve the situation in order to ensure the future of the Ukrainian population.