The Hubble Space Telescope Could Fall to Earth: New Risks for the Population.

Danger of the Hubble Space Telescope

According to ТСН: The Hubble Space Telescope, which has been exploring the mysteries of the universe for nearly 35 years, is gradually losing its orbit. In the future, it may uncontrollably fall into Earth's atmosphere. New research shows that the risk to people is higher than previously expected.

Hubble operates in low orbit, moving at speeds of over 28,000 km/h, and has conducted more than 1.3 million scientific observations since its launch in 1990. Thanks to its data, scientists were able to accurately determine the age of the universe — 13.8 billion years — and also discovered the acceleration of cosmic expansion.

However, with each passing year, the telescope is descending lower due to the resistance of the upper layers of the atmosphere. In the past, astronauts could raise it to a higher orbit during servicing missions, but this possibility no longer exists.

Predictions for Hubble's Fall

According to new estimates, Hubble's orbit will continue to decrease until the spacecraft enters the atmosphere. Predictions vary: the most optimistic scenario foresees remaining in orbit until 2040, while the pessimistic scenario suggests falling as early as 2029. The most likely return is expected in 2033.

Researchers warn that Hubble was not designed for controlled deorbiting, so some of its structure may not completely burn up and reach the surface of the Earth. Modeling indicates that debris may scatter over a length of 350–800 km.

Risks to People and Consequences

Although the risks to people remain low, they exceed NASA's allowable limits. On average, the likelihood of casualties could range from 1 to 330, significantly higher than the norm of 1 in 10,000. In the event of debris falling on densely populated areas, such as Macau, there may be two to four casualties; in Hong Kong or Singapore — at least one.

The study authors strongly recommend conducting further calculations, taking into account solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and population forecasts. Even a legendary telescope like Hubble could complete its mission with an unpredictable incident if its fall occurs uncontrolled.

Scientists have also recorded a 10-second gamma-ray burst from a distant point in the universe, located 13 billion light-years away.

The situation surrounding the Hubble Space Telescope emphasizes the importance of monitoring space debris and the risks associated with its return to Earth. Scientists will continue to monitor this process, as safe management of orbital spacecraft becomes an increasingly pressing issue in modern astronomy and space policy. Understanding the risks from Hubble's fall may contribute to further advancements in technology in this field.