Putin Prepares to Freeze the War: The Real Aim Is to Avoid Dependency on China.

According to ТСН: Vladimir Putin continues to publicly support ideas about 'historical lands', trying to convince the world of his readiness for a prolonged war. However, behind the aggressive statements lie real fears of the Kremlin losing its geopolitical subjectivity and becoming a dependent country of China.

Expert's Comment

This opinion was expressed by Valery Klochk, head of the Public Analytics Center 'Veza'. He notes an interesting detail in Putin's speeches: during the last 'direct line', he avoided the term 'Novorossiya', which he previously used frequently. He also only briefly mentioned the conditions of 2024.

Klochk adds that at meetings with the military command, particularly with the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Andrey Biylov, Putin expressed his readiness to continue the war even until 2026.

Strategic Goals

The expert is confident that if Putin decides to freeze the conflict, his goal will be to avoid transforming Russia into a raw materials appendage of China. For this, Moscow needs to restore at least part of the economic relations with the United States, as only Washington is capable of exerting pressure on the Russian Federation.

'He wants to concentrate his resources to increase offensive capabilities for the future, to establish economic relations with the USA. And there is only one goal — to avoid deepening dependence on Beijing,' emphasized the expert.

Klochk stressed that Moscow's dependence on Beijing is not yet complete, although the percentage is already critically high. Freezing the conflict gives Putin a chance to preserve Russia as an independent player.

It is important to consider this situation comprehensively, as China is closely monitoring the events.

The Situation on the Front

According to Financial Times data, Russian generals and special services systematically embellish reports on the situation at the front for Putin, exaggerating Ukraine's losses and downplaying their own defeats. This leads to the Russian dictator believing in the possibility of a quick victory and refusing favorable conditions for ending the war offered by the USA.

Recall that the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for informing Putin, and the dissemination of misinformation – in particular, about the allegedly captured Kup’yansk – is criticized even among pro-Russian Z-bloggers.

Thus, the situation at the front continues to remain tense, and the aggressive rhetoric of the Kremlin is caused not only by strategic goals but also by internal problems that force the Russian leadership to seek ways to preserve its independence amidst growing dependence on China. Observing these events, the international community must be ready to respond to new challenges that may arise in the region.