Russian Disintegration Predicted by Polish Analyst: What’s Happening to the Economy.

Russia’s Potential Breakup and Growing Dependence on China

According to Espreso.tv: Polish analyst Piotr Kulpa has shared his assessment that Russia may fracture into multiple states, while also commenting on the state of its wartime economy. He argues that a key factor will be the maneuvering among Western actors who favor Russia’s dissolution. Kulpa identified the following countries as those expressing such ambitions:

• Scandinavia
• The Baltic states
• Poland
• Romania
• Turkey
• Ukraine

The condition of Russia’s economy is causing serious alarm. Since the start of 2026, the country has lost at least $7 billion due to strikes on its oil refining infrastructure. Over the first four months of 2026, the budget deficit reached 5.9 trillion rubles—a clear sign of the severe financial strain the nation is under. On June 18, 2026, it was reported that war-related spending had surged 40% above the original budget plan, further worsening the economic outlook.

Russia’s gasoline production has also taken a major hit. In June 2026, output fell 25% compared to the same month the previous year. Despite these setbacks, Russia managed to increase pipeline oil exports by 22%, thanks largely to deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary. However, as Kulpa noted, the country has lost its sovereignty during the war and is now heavily reliant on Beijing.

“The overwhelming majority in Russia are directing their grievances at Putin, because there is no end in sight to his war.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy

These remarks underscore the rising discontent among the population and the potential implications for political stability. Taken together, these factors paint a complex picture of developments in Russia amid the ongoing war and shifting international relations.

The situation in Russia remains tense, as economic hardship and social dissatisfaction could undermine the country’s political stability. Ties with China are becoming increasingly pivotal, signaling a realignment of geopolitical alliances. Meanwhile, the international community continues to monitor events closely, as any changes in Russia could have far-reaching consequences for the region and the world at large.