Product Basket 2025: What Factors Will Shape Prices in Ukraine.

According to economist Oleg Pendzin's forecasts, food prices in Ukraine in 2025 will depend on many factors, including yield, purchasing power, and inflation. It is expected that vegetable and potato prices will rise the most, while meat and dairy products will see slower price increases.

“When we talk about the food basket, its growth will be around 9.5% on average. However, it is important to understand that for certain product categories, such as vegetables or eggs, prices may rise significantly more due to low yields or rising raw material prices,” Pendzin explains.

Inflation affects all groups of products, but to varying degrees. Vegetables, which are most sensitive to weather conditions and yields, may increase by 30-50%. Egg prices may also rise due to high feed costs. Meanwhile, meat prices will increase the least due to reduced demand. Ukraine is a leading producer of agricultural products, so yield has a direct impact on prices in the domestic market. According to Pendzin, the potato harvest has declined, leading to an increase in its prices. In 2025, the situation's development will depend on weather conditions. If the harvest is favorable, price growth can be contained. Otherwise, significant increases in the prices of basic products can be expected. The purchasing power of the population also affects price dynamics. According to the Razumkov Center, 44% of Ukrainians are forced to save on food by choosing cheaper products. This leads to an increase in demand for cheap products, which in turn drives their prices up. The expert also notes that the import of goods, especially vegetables or fruits, may partially influence price growth. However, the hryvnia exchange rate will not have a major impact on the overall situation. “We see that cheap products, such as potatoes and vegetables, will become more expensive faster, while expensive products will rise in price more slowly. This reflects the real purchasing power of Ukrainians,” Pendzin emphasizes.