Putin Fears a Draft: Russia's Army Faces Growing Crisis.

Frontline Struggles and Russia’s Mobilization Dilemma

According to Espreso.tv: In an analysis for the Atlantic Council, expert Mykola Bielieskov outlines a deteriorating situation for Russia on the battlefield. The Russian army is suffering heavy casualties, while the Kremlin struggles to recruit volunteers and faces serious obstacles to any new mobilization effort. Moscow’s offensive momentum is stalling, and Ukrainian drone operations are increasingly disrupting invasion logistics and effectively blockading occupied Crimea.

The 2022 mobilization triggered a severe backlash among the Russian public, posing a major political risk for President Vladimir Putin. Following the announcement, up to one million military-age men fled the country, a clear sign of widespread reluctance to join the conflict. By May 2023, Russia had resumed a covert mobilization campaign, further underscoring the depth of the crisis.

Kremlin’s Mounting Challenges

To address troop shortages, the Kremlin has relied on recruiting from ethnic minorities and prisoners. However, these methods are now showing diminishing returns. Recruitment has dropped by 20%, and for the first time, Russia has begun offering direct cash payments to citizens for participating in the war—a desperate measure to attract new fighters.

Mykola Bielieskov warns that 'any attempt to conscript large numbers of Russians would break this unspoken agreement and could potentially destabilize the situation in the rear.'

He also points out that disgruntled Russian conscripts played a key role in the unrest that led to the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917. 'The situation remains difficult,' the expert concludes, emphasizing that the Kremlin’s outlook remains uncertain.

These factors point to a deep internal crisis within Russia as it continues its military campaign. Declining morale among troops and the exodus of draft-age men highlight the serious challenges the Kremlin faces in sustaining the war effort. If conditions worsen further, this could trigger broader social unrest and significant political consequences for Russia’s leadership.