Putin can still announce a new wave of mobilization - ISW.

The Institute for the Study of War stated that Vladimir Putin does not plan to announce a new wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation, but he does not rule out such a possibility.

Analysts reviewed the statement of the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, that the Russian Federation wants to end the war by the beginning of 2026.

The head of the GUR reported that the Kremlin considers 2025 a turning point. The inability to achieve victory by the beginning of 2026 will undermine the Russian Federation's aspiration to remain a global superpower for the next 30 years.

According to Budanov, Russia expects deterioration of the economic and socio-political situation by mid-2025. There is also an increase in difficulties in recruiting personnel for the army.

ISW provides data indicating that payments to contractors in the regions of the Russian Federation are increasing, demonstrating a rise in recruitment costs.

Budanov stated that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region and Ukraine's strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation have demoralized the Russian population and undermined the perception of Russia as an invincible state.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence believes that growing problems will force Putin to make a decision: start a new mobilization or reduce the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine.

ISW believes that the Kremlin seeks to maintain a high level of hostilities.

It remains unknown how Putin will respond to a new crisis if one arises.

ISW does not provide an answer to this question due to the rising defense expenditures of the Russian Federation.

Source: RBC-Ukraine