Russia will need more than 100 years to occupy Ukraine: The Economist's assessment.

According to inkorr.com: According to forecasts, Russia will need over a hundred years to completely

capture the territory of Ukraine

, if its current rate of advance remains unchanged. As reported by

The Economist

, even the completion of the occupation of just four partially occupied regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia — will take at least until June 2030.

How much territory Russia has captured in a month

Since October 2022, when the front line stabilized after the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the situation has practically not changed. In the last month, Russia has managed to advance only 0.4% of the territory of Ukraine, with no significant results.

Russian army losses in 2025

According to estimates,

the losses of the Russian army

from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January 2025 are estimated at 640–877 thousand, of which 137–228 thousand are dead. By October, these figures have increased by almost 60% — to 984 thousand – 1.43 million losses, among which between 190 and 480 thousand are dead.

Comparing these figures with the pre-war number of men in Russia,

The Economist

notes that this constitutes between 0.5% and 1.2% of all men under 60 years old. In Ukraine, analysts estimate that the proportion of dead and missing is between 0.6% and 1.3%.

Experts emphasize that a sudden breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense is unlikely: constant monitoring using drones and precision strikes at long distances make any mass troop concentration practically suicidal. The only thing the Russian army can do is slowly advance, sending small groups into the 'death zone'.

According to the calculations of

The Economist

, even this approach may prove fatal for Russia:

• The war depletes the aggressor's resources.

• Western support allows Ukraine to maintain its defense.

• Russia's military-economic collapse may happen sooner than a breakthrough.

The article notes that if the West continues to support Kyiv, hostilities will continue, but the pace of the Russian advance will remain minimal.

Thus, the situation at the front remains tense, but without significant changes in Russia's territorial gains. Despite the constant attempts of the aggressor, the quality of support from Western countries significantly strengthens Ukraine's positions, making successful Russian advances extremely unlikely in the current conflict.