Could Europe Defend Ukraine Without US Help? A 2029 Scenario.

Simulation Exercise by the Council on Foreign Relations

According to Espreso.tv: A simulation exercise organized by the Council on Foreign Relations examined a potential crisis in Ukraine in 2029. The drill highlighted Ukraine’s central role in European security, particularly in the context of confrontation with Russia. Participants underscored the urgent need to ramp up military assistance for Kyiv, especially given the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region.

Military Support for Ukraine

Starting in early 2026, Europe began committing roughly €2 billion per month in new military aid to Ukraine. This was a direct response to escalating threats from Moscow and the imperative to maintain regional stability. However, in June 2026, the United States informed its allies of plans to reduce the number of aircraft and naval vessels deployed for NATO operations. This move sparked concern among European nations that remain heavily reliant on American military backing.

In May 2026, analysts voiced alarm over U.S. foreign policy, stating that President Trump had reduced transatlantic relations to ruins. This further complicated matters, especially after Polish expert Kulpa argued in June 2025 that Europe could arm itself without the United States. Yet, as the exercise authors note,

“no European state is strong enough on its own to stand up to Russia.”

The situation remains precarious. Analysts stress that safeguarding European security requires fresh approaches to military cooperation and support for Ukraine. Given these challenges, it is essential to keep advancing initiatives that bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and foster stability across the region.

The exercise underscores Ukraine’s strategic importance—not just for its own security, but for the stability of the entire European continent. With U.S. military support shrinking, European countries must find ways to strengthen their own defenses and build more effective security partnerships. This could involve:

• new formats for collaboration,
• reducing reliance on external allies,
• and creating efficient mechanisms to counter threats from Russia.