Young Americans Are Turning Away from Trump: What New Data Shows.

Key Findings

• After young voters aligned with Republicans in 2024, one popular narrative suggested that Generation Z splits into two distinct types. Those who grew up during and after the Covid pandemic seem more dedicated to Trump and conservatism.
• New data indicates that a divide does exist, but it may not be as straightforward as some conservatives describe — as an older, more progressive generation and a younger, more right-leaning one.
• The youngest segment of Gen Z may emerge as leaders of an anti-establishment trend among young Americans, driven by disillusionment with Trump.

According to Vox: Over the past year, younger voters in the U.S. have actively shifted our perception of politics. When Gen Z sharply changed their sympathies toward Republicans, their support for President Donald Trump varied from 6 to 21 points depending on the data source compared to 2020. However, they now seem to be just as rejecting of this course. Recent polls show their preference in Congress control with Democrats stands at 17 points ahead for 2026, as they resolutely disapprove of Trump, indicating a shift in their views compared to the beginning of the year.

This reversal includes young men — the segment of the population that Democrats and media have focused on over the past two years in an attempt to understand them. In recent years, there have been reports that young Americans are becoming more conservative, increasingly engaged with religion, supporting Trump, and protesting against Democrats and popular culture that positions traditional masculinity unfavorably — all while facing a mental health and loneliness crisis.

Have they turned into big-hearted liberals in just a few months? The answer to this question could influence not just the midterm elections. Different segments of Gen Z may have varied reasons for their disillusionment with the political situation, which in turn will affect the proposals from the new generation of political leaders regarding the restoration of trust in the political system.

To analyze this situation, I turned to a theory that emerged in the spring: there are two clear categories within Gen Z. One — the older cohort, typically born between 1995 and 2001 — is more loyal to Democrats and familiar with life before the pandemic. The other — the younger cohort, born after 2002 — grew up during and after the pandemic, holds more individualistic views and seemed to support Trump more in the first half of the year and in 2024.

New data confirms that there is complexity within Gen Z. In particular, a new survey published last week by the Young Men’s Research Project indicates that younger members of Gen Z are sharply moving away from Trump support more than their older peers. This is just one dataset, but it adds to the evidence that the youngest members of the electorate are going through a turbulent period.

What New Data Says About Young Men in Gen Z

In October, the Young Men’s Research Project team with YouGov focused on men aged 18 to 29. What they found challenges part of the theory posited earlier this year that younger Gen Z typically holds more “conservative” views and traditional political and societal views, including on gender. There is data indicating the opinions of the two groups of young people are changing at different rates.

Firstly, their latest survey in May revealed that young men overall expressed anxiety and pessimism. Most older Gen Z men believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while among younger men, this sentiment is even stronger.

This cynicism gap is also reflected in support for Donald Trump (though both categories disapprove of him, the difference is 6 points). When discussing Trump’s policies, younger Gen Z men significantly condemn his stance on some issues, such as ICE tactics or vaccination mandates in schools.

However, the most significant differences between the groups appear in views on society and traditional gender norms. Younger Gen Z men exhibited more conservative views than older ones: they were more likely to agree with the notion that 'generally it’s better when men earn money and women take care of the home and children,' or that 'feminism favors women over men.' This category also exhibits a more skeptical attitude toward the LGBTQ+ community.

These findings are important as they contradict some previous analyses claiming that the younger generation is more open to conservatism and the Republican Party.

“Young men overall are one of the least ideological generations or demographic groups when it comes to their views on various policies,” Charlie Sabgir, author of the YRMP report, told me. They may appear more conservative on paper, he explained, “but in terms of actual policy and ideology, they simply haven’t committed to any rigid belief system the way young women [who are much more unequivocally liberal and progressive in politics and ideology] have.”

Sabgir acknowledged that some differences in social views require deeper investigation. Could it be the influence of TikTok or specific influencers shaping their perspectives? Or is this a natural transition to more conservative views observed among previous generations?

This reason remains unclear for now, but it is evident that a generational divide is occurring. Particularly in views on Trump: “there is a shock at the pace of events,” which differently affects the youngest generation compared to the older one that has already experienced Trump's presidency. This makes it clear that the younger generation, which previously supported him, is now more actively distancing themselves from him.

Are Younger Generations Really More Conservative?

Other data sources, including other polls, show similar volatility and discrepancies within the youngest voting generation, although their conclusions may differ. Fall polls from Harvard and Yale, for example, also recorded increasing cynicism and dissatisfaction regarding the direction of the country, attitudes toward Trump, and instability in views on society and culture.

The Yale Youth survey, which previously noted a more conservative tilt among young Gen Z voters, also found a split in opinions in a new survey published this month. The younger generation is increasingly less likely to identify as 'liberal' and more likely to associate themselves with 'conservative' positions.

They also show more support for Trump’s policies. “If you look at any issues broken down by age, you will almost always see that 18-22 year-olds are more conservative than 23-29 year-olds,” Singh says. However, he emphasizes that this doesn’t mean all young men are “hardcore MAGA republicans.”

This divide raises further questions: can young men be convinced to vote differently due to economic issues and disillusionment with Trump? Do these ideological differences represent a long-term trend, signaling the future of the MAGA or Republican movement with young conservatives?

Singh believes that while the younger generation appears to have a somewhat more conservative tilt, the possibility for change remains as they do not necessarily hold firm political views. Agreeing that there is a growing conservatism among youth, it is important to note that this may only be a surface trend.

“Perhaps one of the main reasons why many young people voted for Trump in 2024 is that they were very frustrated with the cost of living. And while this cannot be denied, some young people may feel out of place in today’s Democratic coalition,” Singh comments. “But they’ve seen that Trump not only failed to lower the cost of living — his major legislation, in their view, only makes matters worse.”

So, what do these divergences in Gen Z actually signify, says G. Elliot Morris, data journalist and polling expert, about the willingness of the younger generation to break away from the old system.

“If you ask the younger generation about the direction of the country, they are much more likely to say ‘in the wrong direction.’ If you ask them about the economic situation, they also sound pessimistic. They’ve had limited work experience, their learning time during Covid was unfavorable, and this influences their attitude toward politics,” emphasizes Morris.

Young men appear to be one of the groups most dissatisfied with Trump’s actions regarding economic opportunities, rating it as their primary issue ahead of 2024.

Such differences can significantly impact the forthcoming American elections and the overall political landscape. In recent years, discourse about young Americans has shown fatalism in their ideological perspectives, but it also reveals that young voters — particularly young men — are not a homogenous group.