Russia struck Lviv region with the rocket 'Oreshnik': why it was a futile demonstration.

According to ТСН: The Russian attack on the Lviv region using the new 'Oreshnik' rocket has sparked active discussion. The Security Service of Ukraine has confirmed the type of weapon used. However, experts note that the military rationale for such a strike is questionable, and they consider possible political motives behind this action.

Expert Comment

In an interview with '24 Channel', Ukrainian Armed Forces officer and political scientist Andriy Tkachuk explained that using a medium-range ballistic missile against targets in Ukraine appears strange. The 'Oreshnik' has a striking range of over 5000 kilometers, and attacking nearby targets in such a way is an expensive and ineffective decision.

“Using it as a means of striking in Ukraine is actually absurd. A strike without a warhead inflicts dozens or even hundreds of times fewer damages,” emphasized Tkachuk.

The expert also stressed that Russia has much cheaper means to cause destruction, such as drones, cruise missiles, and conventional ballistic missiles. Thus, the effectiveness of the attack does not correspond to its cost and the pompous statements of Russian propaganda.

Main Goal — Psychological Impact

The main goal of launching the rocket is not to destroy objects, but to exert psychological pressure on the population. Tkachuk believes that Moscow is trying to ‘sell’ its main product — fear.

“The 'Oreshnik' is used here as a PSYOP component of informational and psychological pressure on the civilian population of Ukraine,” explained the military.

Probably, the enemy hopes that against the backdrop of power outages and cold, the demonstration of their 'wonder weapon' will cause panic and a demand for capitulation among Ukrainians.

Lviv region was chosen for the attack not by chance, as it is a region bordering the EU and NATO.

“This rocket can reach both Paris and Lisbon,” noted the expert.

The strike is also associated with Russia's geopolitical failures, including the detention of tankers and the situation in Venezuela. This is an attempt by the Kremlin to demonstrate ‘determination’ and readiness to raise the stakes in negotiations with Washington.

In addition, aviation expert Valery Romanenko noted that the threat of repeated strikes with the 'Oreshnik' rocket in the near future is minimal. He reported that Russia lacks the capacity for serial production of this weapon and likely used it for a show of strength. According to military intelligence, Russia may have only two such rockets, one of which has already been used, and producing new ones will take considerable time.

This attack demonstrates that Russia continues to use tactics aimed at psychologically influencing Ukrainian society, trying to showcase its capabilities. Observations of the situation indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to project power, despite its limited capabilities in manufacturing new weapons. This further emphasizes the importance of the psychological aspect in modern armed conflicts.