Trump Delays Deal on Ukraine: Why Peace Talks with Russia Have Hit a Dead End Again.

According to ТСН: U.S. President Donald Trump has backed away from his new hard deadline of November 27 for a deal on Ukraine, despite his desire to create an image of a peacemaker. This suggests that the meeting in Moscow between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and representatives of the Kremlin is unlikely to lead to unexpected agreements to end the war.

Differences between Kyiv and Moscow remain significant, the publication notes.

Stumbling Blocks for the Parties

The publication emphasizes that Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to accept any proposals that do not ensure his control over the entire eastern Donetsk region is likely to remain in effect in the coming days. The latest proposal from the U.S., sent to the 'Fuhrer', effectively excludes this key concession, which is regarded in Kyiv and among European allies as nonsensical both militarily and politically.

'This repeated, cyclical inability to understand the chasm between the two sides – produced on two separate negotiating paths – is the reason why progress always seems close yet simultaneously unreachable...'

A significant part of the proposed deal contains theoretical aspects of future alliances, financing, and limitations. However, these elements might not materialize or, conversely, transform into something more realistic months after the deal is signed.

The article states that Ukraine is unlikely to need an army of 600,000 – the number suggested by the draft deal if peace is indeed achieved. NATO membership may become less important in peacetime, and the question of Russia's return to the G8 appears unlikely.

Will the Deal Stop the War

One of the most important questions is whether any deal will actually stop the war. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky may be forced to make a significant compromise.

'He must weigh the value of future security guarantees formalized by the U.S. and Europe against the real and inevitable damage that conceding Donbas will inflict on his political and military standing...'

There are no encouraging news ahead. Trump's deadline has pushed the corruption scandal to the background, and funding from Ukraine's allies for the next year is in question. Three separate crises have emerged at the front line, and the rest of the Donetsk region under Kyiv's control is also at risk this winter.

Kyiv and Allies' Hope

'The silent hope of Kyiv and its allies may be in vain, believing that Ukraine can prove Russia's brutal squandering of human resources and its complete economic focus on the war is reaching its limits, and see it collapse...'

Ukraine's struggle is existential, as it does not have the ability to stop the assault as Moscow can. After ten months of intense fighting, the situation might change. Initially, the idea of territorial concessions to Ukraine was an active topic of discussion, but it has now resurfaced in Trump's new peace plans.

'It has vanished from the leaked European counterproposal, but evidently not from Putin's maximalist wish list...'

Thus, Witkoff will likely hear from Putin again a demand for Ukraine to give up Donetsk in exchange for peace.

'Zelensky will again face pressure, and there may come another Thanksgiving-style deadline.'

It should be noted that ahead of this, Vladimir Putin stated that 'no' peace treaty projects exist, only a 'set of questions' for discussion. However, he acknowledged that Washington's proposals could serve as a basis for future agreements.

In Russia, it has again been stated that the positions in a potential peace plan are 'unacceptable' for them. Moscow insists that the deployment of European troops in Ukraine is 'impossible,' and Ukraine's membership in NATO remains unacceptable.

This situation highlights the complexity of peace negotiations and the challenges faced by all parties. The lack of progress in negotiations could lead to further escalation of the conflict and affect the overall security situation in the region. Ukraine should continue cooperating with international partners to strengthen its position and achieve stability in the region.