Why is Russia so focused on capturing Velyka Novosilka? ISW explanation.

Capturing Velyka Novosilka will help the Russian command address the issue of relocating troops to other areas and determine future offensive directions. This information is contained in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts also note that the Russian Ministry of Defense overly emphasizes the capture of Velyka Novosilka, which may indicate an attempt by Russia to create a negative perception in the West about the situation on the battlefield and weaken international support for Ukraine.

It is claimed that Russian troops continue to advance towards Velyka Novosilka, although official Russian information asserts that the settlement was captured on January 26. Geolocation data published on January 26 shows that Russian troops continue to move north along Central Street in Velyka Novosilka.

Some Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed on January 26 that Russian troops had fully captured Velyka Novosilka, while other sources asserted that the occupiers had only taken a part of the settlement.

Some Russian bloggers also claimed that Russian troops are still clearing the settlement of Ukrainian forces, particularly in the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in this area.

“However, according to geolocation data, ISW believes that Russian troops control 89% of the settlement,” the report states.

Furthermore, experts note that it is unclear whether Russian troops will be able to quickly continue their advance after Velyka Novosilka, as it is unknown how many military forces remain in the Eastern Military District of the Russian army after continuous offensive operations for several months.

“Velyka Novosilka is located near several rivers, which will likely complicate the movement of Russian troops in this area… Russian troops are facing problems with river crossings… this will likely hinder the capability of Russian troops to use the capture of Velyka Novosilka for rapid movement in the western part of Donetsk region,” analysts add.

Experts also predict that the capture of Velyka Novosilka will allow the Russian command to make decisions about relocating units of the Eastern Military District (EVD) of Russia from Velyka Novosilka to other priority areas. “The capture of Velyka Novosilka will represent a decision during which the Russian military command can implement several courses of action,” the report states.

In particular, the Russian command may decide to leave some troops in the western part of Donetsk region and continue movement towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, which runs north and west of Velyka Novosilka.

This decision may indicate that the Russian command prioritizes rapid movement to the administrative border rather than pursuing other directions in Donetsk region or other areas near the frontline.

It should be noted that earlier, the 110th OMBR stated that there was no threat of encirclement for Ukrainian forces located in the area of Velyka Novosilka. The battle for the settlement continues. Ukrainian forces managed to withdraw from areas where they were threatened with encirclement due to weather conditions.