Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Why the West's Plan is Called the Second Best.

According to ТСН: Ukraine cannot agree to give up territory within a ceasefire agreement without reliable security guarantees. However, it is hard to imagine what value such guarantees from the United States have if they do not plan to participate in the war for Ukraine against Russia.

After negotiations in Berlin, it became known about the possibility of providing Ukraine with security guarantees resembling NATO's, as well as economic support after the fighting ends. However, many details remain undefined and require further discussion. Most importantly, the proposals have not yet been conveyed to Russia, which will undoubtedly object to the majority of them. And it is unclear whether Vladimir Putin truly seeks to end the war.

Dilemma for Ukraine

“For Ukraine, the dilemma remains unchanged. It cannot agree to the surrender of territory in a ceasefire agreement without ironclad security guarantees. However, the stronger the guarantees, the greater the likelihood that Russia will reject them… And in any case, it is hard to understand the value of security guarantees from America, which has consistently stated and demonstrated that it will not fight for Ukraine against Russia,” the article states.

It is believed that diplomatically the negotiations in Berlin may represent a step forward.

What is Known about Security Guarantees

The agreement on the main security guarantees for Ukraine was reached between European states and two American envoys. American officials described these guarantees as a “platinum standard,” although details are still lacking.

Although Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, the U.S. and European countries promise to provide commitments similar to NATO's Article 5, under which an armed attack on one ally is considered an attack on all. Trump is likely prepared to present these guarantees for Senate approval, although officials did not specify whether it would be a treaty or a less binding resolution.

In the event of a new Russian attack, European leaders stated that the West could apply “armed forces, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions.” However, these measures cannot equate to Ukraine's status as a full-fledged ally.

While NATO countries conduct joint exercises and planning, U.S. representatives emphasized that American troops will not be on the ground. It is unclear what support they are prepared to provide. It has been stated that measures will be introduced to monitor the ceasefire and “reduce conflict” between the parties to avoid clashes. European officials hope that the U.S. will lead this mission.

Thus, Ukraine is getting what appears to be a second-tier guarantee. Under this plan, it will be able to maintain its Armed Forces at a level of 800,000 servicemen under the support of a European coalition, which America will vaguely support. The goal is to “assist in the restoration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ensure the security of Ukrainian airspace, and maintain safe seas.” Further details of the plan are to be discussed by military officials in the coming days.

The Issue of Russian Assets

Ukraine insists that Europe utilize Russian assets. However, how broadly the EU can use frozen Russian assets remains unclear.

America is likely not in a hurry to urge Russia to pay. Previously, the U.S. plan included provisions for using part of the Russian assets for bilateral economic projects. However, in the new version of the plan, the emphasis is on “bringing Russia back into the global economy.”

The most challenging issue to resolve involves Russia's demand to free all of Donbas, including those territories still controlled by Ukraine. American representatives have suggested turning these lands into a “free economic zone.” Zelensky emphasizes that Ukraine will not give up sovereignty over these territories, and any withdrawal of Ukrainian forces must be accompanied by the withdrawal of Russian troops.

Too Rosy Statements from Berlin

The publication notes that the statements from leaders in Berlin are presented in too optimistic a light. Security guarantees for Ukraine depend on the uncertain deployment of troops from European countries that have limited resources.

Doubtful willingness of the U.S. to defend Ukraine in the event of new attacks. Promises that mimic NATO's Article 5 mean little in a context where America's commitments to NATO are also unclear.

It is unclear from which sources they plan to finance Ukraine's recovery.

Regarding territorial issues, the greatest achievement is that American envoys, who previously suggested solutions that practically recognized Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories, are now willing to accept a proposal that does not entail this.

The Ball is Again in Russia's Court

Some believe that Putin may make territorial concessions if he thinks it would split Ukraine and drive a wedge between America and the rest of NATO. Others believe that the dictator will not agree to this.

“He will never agree to security guarantees or [the presence of] NATO forces in Ukraine,” emphasizes the former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “All of this is aimed at a deal with Trump, not at achieving a real agreement.”

The story of the Christmas truce during World War I between German and Allied soldiers in 1914 was short-lived. A similar situation may occur in Ukraine.

A German publication previously reported that the plan to end the war in Ukraine is expected to be ready by spring.