Diplomat Chaliy named the conditions for ending the war: three key factors.

According to ТСН: To force Russia to stop its aggression against Ukraine, several key issues must be addressed: changes on the front, increased sanctions, supplying missiles to Ukraine, and reducing oil prices.

Comments from the diplomat

In an interview with one of the TV channels, diplomat Valeriy Chaliy noted that any political statements between the USA and Ukraine would not signify the end of the active phase of the war. He said:

"Even if an American-Ukrainian political statement regarding the end of the active phase of the war appears, it will not lead to a decision about any agreement. It will only be the beginning of a diplomatic track."

Chaliy also pointed out that many factors can influence the speed of these processes:

"Conditions need to be formed. I cannot predict because there are many different factors that affect this."

The diplomat highlighted that a consensus is currently being formed in various circles:

"One group of people confidently says that this is possible now — starting from the NATO Secretary General and ending with the Dnipro rabbi, who seriously claimed to possess confidential information."

Prospects for the situation's development

According to Chaliy, objective preconditions for change may arise no earlier than February-March, when the US sanctions against Russian oil take effect. Saudi Arabia will increase energy supplies to China, which may lower oil prices and demonstrate to Putin that the 'war economy' cannot withstand the burden. At the same time, the USA may make the decision to supply Ukraine with medium-range missiles. He noted:

"Then a window of opportunity may arise around February. Maybe not. But soon, I see February as the critical time."

According to Chaliy, the decision-making process will take several months, so shifting deadlines may shorten the overall time of diplomatic efforts. He pointed out that starting from February could save time:

"From February, you can save not half a year, but a few months, and reach some decision only if Russia is forced."

The importance of the people's will

The diplomat emphasized that applying pressure on Ukraine is impossible without the support of citizens:

"Ukraine can only be forced through joint efforts if the people say they are not ready for resistance any longer."

Chaliy emphasized that the military on the front lines should have the final word:

"They are not ready for such a pause that would take several months, after which the war would resume again. They want guarantees of continued peaceful existence."

The diplomat also warned that the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces could demotivate society and complicate further resistance:

"After that, you won't be able to rally people again."

Chaliy added that the window of opportunity that could arise now has been shifted to February-March:

"What happens next is hard to say."

Earlier it was reported that Russia is trying to change the narrative of the war to conceal its role as an aggressor.

It was also revealed that the Russian budget bill includes record expenditures for the army and arms procurement.

The further development of events in Ukraine and on the international stage will depend on the final decisions of Western allies. Whether the February period will be decisive in the context of diplomatic efforts — time will tell. The time for collaboration and joint actions by citizens and the global community may lead to new opportunities for Ukraine in its fight against the aggressor.