ISW assessed whether the deployment of the 'Oreshnik' system in Belarus increases the risk of strikes on Ukraine.

Analysts assert that the deployment of the 'Oreshnik' system in Belarus does not lead to an increased threat of ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin continues efforts to annex Belarus and increase Russia's military presence in the country. Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin signed a new security guarantees agreement that allows Russia to deploy 'Oreshnik' systems in Belarus until mid-2025.

Analysts note that the deployment of these missiles will strengthen Russia's military presence in Belarus and help the Kremlin achieve its strategic goals to undermine Belarusian sovereignty. However, the deployment of 'Oreshnik' does not heighten the threat of ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine and NATO countries. Russia and Belarus have also signed other documents of the Union State.

Alexander Lukashenko emphasizes that Belarus must control the Russian weapons stationed on its territory. However, analysts point out that the Russian side will maintain control over the 'Oreshnik' systems. Although Putin boasts about this system, ISW experts state that it does not indicate the development of new Russian long-range strike capabilities.