Peace negotiations have reached a deadlock: why territories have become the main obstacle.

According to ТСН: During the process of negotiating a peace agreement regarding Ukraine, difficulties arise, particularly concerning territories. These difficulties have serious grounds.

An expert notes that of the two main problems hindering a satisfactory agreement for Kyiv to end the war, progress is observed concerning security guarantees. However, territorial concessions prove to be significantly more complex.

"Russia already controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, and the annexation of the Donetsk region, which remains under Ukraine's control, will increase this share by approximately one percentage point. When looking at the situation as a whole, it may seem like a small price for Ukraine's real independence after several centuries of struggle. Especially since it is claimed that if the war continues, Ukraine will ultimately lose this territory one way or another," he writes.

According to the analyst, this perspective has several problems, as it is not a real estate agreement.

"The biggest problem lies in the military value of the territory which Vladimir Putin aims to seize—the so-called belt of fortress cities that his troops have been trying unsuccessfully to capture since 2014. If Russia were to obtain this area, it would gain a significant advantage for a new attack, as there would be no natural obstacles up to the large industrial city of Dnipro," he noted.

The price of territorial concessions

The expert believes that a challenging task for Ukraine, alongside military risks, is the fear of hundreds of thousands of people who still live in part of Donbas or flee to safety.

"Vladimir Zelensky also needs to consider the fallen soldiers. What is the goal? The morale of society may be undermined, and a deep feeling of betrayal will affect Ukraine's political future. All this will create military and political weaknesses that Putin will undoubtedly wish to exploit, but such territorial concessions carry their consequences. Donetsk is not the only case. Unfortunately, there are many places in Ukraine illustrating what happens from a slight shift in the front line by just a few kilometers," he explained.

The expert also believes that Russia's goal lies in blocking Mykolaiv, which before the war had the country's most modern port, through which a significant part of grain exports passed.

"Even now, the future looks bleak. The port is idle. Over 100 ships and grain barges have been stuck there for four years. When a few of them tried to leave, Russian forces opened fire, sinking one of the vessels. This underscores why the details of any territorial agreement hold such great significance. The most significant post-war problem for Ukraine will be demographic," he wrote.

Demographic chasm and the specter of 'hybrid peace'

The expert believes that in the best case, only 11 million people will remain for Ukraine's recovery, as many of those returning from the front may be left without limbs or so traumatized that they will not be able to work. Ukraine needs 6-7 million refugees to return home, for which the war must end definitively, with security guarantees and territorial agreements allowing Ukrainian mothers to bring their children from safe schools and jobs in Western Europe.

"I sincerely doubt that Putin will agree to a deal with such guarantees. That is why his willingness to agree to conditions that do not allow him to either resume the war or continue it in a hybrid form, disguised as peace, should become the litmus test by which any settlement will be evaluated," Champion concluded.

It is noteworthy that President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated in his video address to Ukrainians that Russia views the coming year as a year of continued large-scale hostilities. Signals coming from Moscow indicate a lack of genuine desire for peace.

This situation underscores the importance and complexity of the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, where territorial issues become not only a legal but also a moral and political challenge. The consequences of such decisions may have long-lasting effects on the will and security of the Ukrainian people.