Why the US-Israel Plan to Topple Iran's Regime Fell Short.

The 2026 Conflict Between Israel, the US, and Iran

According to TSN.ua: By March 2026, a war involving Israel, the United States, and Iran had begun, but it failed to deliver the swift regime change both Western allies had anticipated. After three weeks of fighting, it became clear that the strategy presented by Mossad chief David Barnea to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not succeeded. Iran's leadership retained its grip on the country, and the likelihood of widespread protests diminished as the population grew fearful of state security forces.

At the onset of the conflict, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to take control of their government, stating, 'Take control of your government: it will be yours.' Yet intelligence assessments concluded that the Iranian regime managed to hold onto power. Trump also alleged that Iranian security forces were 'shooting people with machine guns' during protests, pointing to brutal crackdowns against dissenters.

Challenges of Foreign Intervention

In preparing for the confrontation, Israel had hoped to spark an uprising inside Iran, but those expectations were not met. Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that

'revolutions are not made from the air. A ground component is also needed,'

'We came to the conclusion that we cannot achieve this.'

During the conflict, Mossad also explored the possibility of a Kurdish incursion into Iran, hoping for their active role in toppling the current government. However, Trump's call to Kurdish leaders on March 7, 2026, advising them not to send troops into Iran, reduced the likelihood of that scenario unfolding.

As a result, despite the hopes of Israel and the United States, Iran remained stable. The regime continues to hold power, and the population's fear of repression significantly hinders any chance of mass protests, casting doubt on prospects for political change in the country.

This conflict highlights the difficulty of intervening in the internal affairs of other nations, especially when dealing with regimes backed by strong security forces. In an environment of repression and a lack of popular support, external powers face major obstacles in trying to alter the political landscape. Going forward, the international community may need to rethink its strategies toward Iran, given the unexpected resilience of its government.