Predictions for 2026: Trump, Recession in the USA, and Breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence.

Predictions for 2026

According to Vox - Культура: Predictions for 2026, prepared by the Future Perfect team and experts at Vox, encompass important political, economic, and social events in the USA and around the world. In particular, emphasis is placed on possible changes in power, economic conditions, environmental issues, and technological progress. Among the key predictions, it is noted that Donald Trump will be elected for a second term. However, according to V-DEM, the USA will fall from the rank of liberal democracies but will remain an electoral democracy with a probability of 60%. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a 95% chance of regaining at least one chamber of Congress.

Political Context

In the political context, it is expected that Trump will likely replace at least one member of the Supreme Court by the end of 2026 (75%), and the US court is likely to rule against Trump in tariff cases with a probability of 70%. It is also predicted that Benjamin Netanyahu will not be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of the year (65%). At the same time, no ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia is expected to be observed for 30 days until December 31, 2026 (60%). China is predicted not to impose a full blockade on Taiwan or launch the declared invasion (75%).

From an economic perspective, the USA is expected to experience a recession in 2026 with a probability of 55%. The total capital of billionaires will exceed $17 trillion (85%). The share of cage-free eggs in the USA will not exceed 50% in 2026 (60%), and at least one US state will ban lab-grown meat (60%). Meanwhile, the USA will authorize mass vaccination of birds against avian influenza for at least one category of poultry (35%). The global demand for electricity for data centers is forecasted to remain below 3% of total electricity consumption in 2026 (80%).

In the field of science and technology, at least one artificial intelligence system will be able to perform a task that takes humans 16 hours, successfully completing at least half of its attempts (75%). Congress will not pass, and Trump will not sign any comprehensive federal legislation regarding artificial intelligence safety (90%). It is predicted that at least one predominantly AI-generated song will reach number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (60%).

In the healthcare sector, the USA will approve at least one completely synthetic, small-molecule oral GLP-1 agonist for the treatment of obesity and/or type 2 diabetes (70%). The World Health Organization will officially revoke the USA's status regarding measles elimination with a probability of 75%. Socio-cultural predictions include the possibility of Beyoncé releasing a rock album (55%) and Jacob Elordi receiving an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor for his role in 'Frankenstein' (70%).

Thus, the predictions for 2026 presented by Future Perfect and Vox indicate significant changes in the political, economic, and technological environment that could affect people's lives both in the USA and around the world. In particular, likely changes in the political landscape could influence the domestic and foreign policies of the USA, while economic forecasts suggest possible challenges for the population. Technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence and healthcare, could also significantly alter people's everyday lives, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new conditions.