The Russian Federation is likely changing its priorities in Donetsk.

The Russian occupiers plan to seize Toretsk in the coming days. The redeployment of the Eastern Military District (EMD) to strengthen the Russian grouping in the Toretsk direction may indicate new priority efforts by Russia to resume attacks towards Konstantynivka. This is stated in the report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, the Russian troops likely intend to use the capture of Toretsk to push further west along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostyantynivka route towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Kostyantynivka.

Analysts note that the advance of Russian troops in the Toretsk direction has been slow as the occupiers have been moving through built-up urban areas, but they may begin to move relatively faster once they break through from Toretsk to more open areas west of the settlement.

In addition, the occupiers may also try to exploit tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to destroy Ukrainian positions to the southwest of Toretsk, and some Russian bloggers have recently suggested that Russian troops may intensify offensive operations to the southwest of Toretsk with this aim.

Experts believe that Russian troops may seek to eliminate Ukrainian positions to the southwest of Toretsk to strengthen their southern flank before an offensive on Kostyantynivka.

Change in Russian Operational Priorities

In particular, the Russian military command may redeploy elements of units to reinforce offensive operations in the Toretsk direction if they have a priority intention to pressure the Ukrainian fortification belt in Donetsk Oblast in spring and summer 2025.

The capture of Pokrovsk is the main operational goal of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast since February 2024. Thus, the redeployment of Russian units to the Toretsk or Chasiv Yar directions – as opposed to maintaining units in western Donetsk Oblast, redeploying to the Zaporizhzhia direction or redeploying to the Pokrovsk direction – would indicate a change in Russian operational priorities.

It should be noted that the 1069th day of the full-scale war is ongoing.

In total, 153 combat clashes occurred since the beginning of the last day. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repel enemy attempts to advance deep into our territory, inflicting effective fire damage, exhausting them along the entire front line.

Heavy battles for Velyka Novosilka continue.