Russia's Ambitions for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro: Assessing the Feasibility of Its Military Plans.

Russia's Strategic Aims in Ukraine

According to TSN.ua: Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa, have disclosed Russian military plans for 2026-2027. These documents reportedly outline ambitions to seize Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. According to Ukrainian assessments, it would take Russian forces roughly a year and a half to occupy the 6,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian-controlled territory remaining in the Donetsk region. This disclosure comes as Western intelligence agencies continue to analyze the Kremlin's long-term war objectives.

President Zelenskyy emphasized that Zaporizhzhia holds strategic value for Russia as it seeks to solidify a land corridor to Crimea. However, the city of Dnipro presents a more challenging target, situated approximately 60 kilometers from current Russian front lines—a distance that complicates sustained artillery strikes. Military analyst Oleh Zhdanov commented on the prospects for a direct assault, stating,

“I think it is highly unlikely that Dnipro faces the threat of a direct intervention by Russian occupiers in the coming years.” - Oleh Zhdanov

Zhdanov further evaluated Russia's capacity for capturing major urban centers, asserting that 'as of today, Russia lacks sufficient forces and resources to seize large Ukrainian cities.' He noted that while 'Putin desperately needs a bridgehead on the right bank' of the Dnipro River, 'it will be very difficult for them to achieve this. It will not happen nearly as quickly as they would like.' Russia's military gains in 2025, which amounted to less than one percent of Ukraine's total territory, underscore the difficulties in executing these expansive plans.

Russia's Military Resources and Manpower

Under a decree by President Vladimir Putin, the total strength of Russia's Armed Forces is set to increase to 2.5 million by 2022, including 1.5 million military personnel. For 2023, Russia planned to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers and conscripts. Yet, expert analyses suggest that even these mobilization efforts may prove inadequate for the successful implementation of Moscow's ambitious territorial goals, highlighting a potential gap between aspiration and capability.

The statements from Ukrainian leadership underscore the serious nature of the threats posed by Russia and point to the Kremlin's strategic intent to control key regions of Ukraine. Concurrently, expert assessments reveal the significant obstacles Russia faces, including resource shortages and military limitations. This dynamic suggests a protracted conflict and reinforces the critical importance of sustained international support for Ukraine in countering Russian aggression.