Belarus and Russia strengthen pressure on the EU border: what is happening.

According to FREEДOM:

Migration pressure on the Poland-Belarus border

There is a growing migration pressure at the Polish-Belarusian border. A representative of the Polish government reported that the Belarusian regime is restoring the previous route for smuggling migrants. These actions are a response to the increased security at the Polish-Lithuanian and Polish-German borders. Experts believe that the artificially created migration crisis aims to destabilize the situation in the European Union.

Joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus called “West-2025” are scheduled from September 12 to 16. European countries do not rule out the likelihood of provocations.

Poland tightens border control

After several months of calm, the migration crisis at the Polish-Belarusian border is escalating again. Poland's Minister of the Interior Marcin Kerwinski noted that strengthening control at the Polish-Lithuanian border leads to increased pressure from Lukashenko at the Polish-Belarusian section.

“Lukashenko and Russian services, seeing that we are gradually breaking the schemes of smuggling migrants into the EU due to control at the Polish-Lithuanian and Polish-German borders, are returning to this original route,” — quotes the Polish information agency ROR Minister of the Interior Marcin Kerwinski.

Kerwinski emphasized that combating illegal migration and strengthening borders remain priorities for Warsaw. In early August, he visited the West Pomeranian Voivodeship, where a new electronic surveillance system along the Bug River at the border with Belarus was presented.

“Almost 280 million zlotys (approximately 65.7 million euros) have been allocated, nearly 5,000 cameras installed, about 2,000 infrared spotlights for constant detection of signals of violations of this section of the border, regarding attempts to illegally cross it,” — said Kerwinski.

Earlier, in 2022, Poland built a 5-meter fence at the border with Belarus due to the organized migration crisis from Russia and Belarus. However, Polish border guards note that attempts by migrants to illegally enter the country do not stop.

“As part of the fight against illegal migration, since July 7, temporary border control upon entry into Poland has been in effect at the borders with Lithuania and Germany. Initially, it was introduced for 30 days. Since August 6, the duration of the relevant order from the Ministry of the Interior has been extended for another two months — until October 4,” — writes the Polish information agency POP.

Joint military exercises

Poland continues close cooperation with Lithuania and Latvia to strengthen the security of its borders. The interior ministers of the three countries plan to discuss measures to enhance border protection effectiveness soon. Under conditions where crossing the Polish-Belarusian border is complicated, migrants are moving toward the Lithuanian and Latvian borders.

“It is obvious that attacks by migrants on the borders of EU countries are systemic. Both the Belarusian authorities and security forces regulate this process in one way or another,” — noted analyst of the information agency “Poglad” Oleksandr Klaskovsky.

According to not only recordings from surveillance cameras but also testimonies from former employees of the Belarusian border service, refugees are being brought by Belarusian border guards themselves.

“We had a starting point where we waited for people. Usually, it was somewhere near the border, 500-600 meters away,” — said a former Belarusian border guard in an interview with The Insider.

Initially, migrants were transported only at night, but later, when their numbers became too large, this was done during the day as well. During this time, civilian cars stopped being checked — it became clear that transporting migrants had become a priority task.

“After the Lithuanians tightened the border, everything changed. We stopped taking migrants in UAZ vehicles as before, because now they were going in our direction,” — said a former border guard.

Recently, Russia has intensified hybrid attacks, with critical infrastructure in European countries becoming primary targets. According to a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), these incidents are part of a systemic Kremlin campaign.

Actions of Russia and Belarus

“Methods of Russian special services include arson, damage to underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, interference with GPS operations, hacking attacks on critical infrastructure, and so on,” — stated in the report.

The Center for Counteracting Disinformation (CCD) noted that Russia is trying to identify the weak points of Europe to undermine its stability and reduce support for Ukraine.

“Therefore, fighting hybrid attacks becomes a key element of the security of the entire continent,” — emphasized the CCD.

In September, joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus “West-2025” are scheduled to begin. During these exercises, scenarios for air defense, defensive battles, repelling intruders, and tactical aviation support will be practiced.

According to official data, more than 13,000 servicemen are expected to participate in the maneuvers. According to Lithuanian intelligence, this number could reach 30,000.

“According to our intelligence, up to 30,000 Belarusian and Russian servicemen will participate in the exercises. In Belarus itself, there will be a total of 8,000, of which 2,000 are Russian soldiers,” — said Mindaugas Mazonas, head of the Second Department of Operational Services of Lithuania.

The Kremlin and Minsk assure that the exercises are exclusively defensive and do not pose a threat to other states, but Lithuania does not rule out the possibility of provocations.

The Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskiy previously warned that under the cover of the exercises “West-2025,” hidden formations of offensive groups may take place.

Expert opinions on hybrid threats

What are the main goals of the provocations by Belarus and Russia in Europe, and how can European countries fight against hybrid threats? Answers to these questions were sought in a broadcast on the FREEДOM channel:

• Pavel Latushko, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the People's Anticrisis Management;
• Victor Yagun, Military and Public figure, Major General (reserve) of the SBU, Deputy Head of the SBU (2014-2015), Director of the Security Sector Reform Agency;
• Vaidotas Malinionis, Colonel (reserve), member of the Association of Colonels of Lithuania.

PAVEL LATUSHKO: Provocations of the Russian Federation and Belarus bear fruit

— Dictator Alexander Lukashenko is trying to destabilize the situation at the borders of Belarus with EU member states, pursuing certain goals. He seeks to force European countries, especially Lithuania and Poland, which are enforcing restrictions against Lukashenko's regime, to abandon sanctions.

In European societies, a feeling of fear, irritation, and fatigue should arise. This, according to the Kremlin’s design, will lead to a decline in support for Ukraine.

Poland has already seen an increase in checks, and nearly a million individuals have been detained at the border. This threatens one of the main principles of the EU — the freedom of movement.

The Kremlin and Lukashenko are satisfied with the results: their strategy of escalation through transporting migrants is working.

Acts of sabotage inspired by the intelligence services of Belarus and Russia are also reported, with data on such attempts published almost weekly.

This is a systematic effort, already noticeable to those who are closely monitoring the situation.

Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are closely watching the preparations for the Belarusian-Russian exercises “West-2025.” The entire information campaign surrounding them raises contradictions: initially, significant scales were declared, and later this issue turned out to be more ambiguous.

Conclusions

These events deserve close attention, as they may threaten stability not only in individual countries but also for the entire continent.