ISW Report Details 823 Missiles and Drones in Russian Strikes Around Peace Talks.

Conflict Escalation in Ukraine

According to TSN.ua: Russian Federation forces have continued to strike Ukraine both before and after diplomatic negotiations aimed at peace. According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these heavy attacks involving drones and missiles indicate a significant escalation of the conflict. This pattern underscores the Kremlin's strategy of combining military pressure with diplomatic engagement.

The ISW report notes that Russia launched strikes surrounding bilateral and trilateral talks held at the international level. Key meetings included the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska in August 2025 and U.S.-Ukraine talks in Geneva that November. Further U.S.-Russia negotiations took place in Moscow in November 2025. December 2025 saw talks involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe, as well as separate U.S.-Russia discussions. Two rounds of U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks were subsequently held in Abu Dhabi in January and February 2026.

Attacks Coinciding with Negotiations

In the summer of 2025, Ukrainian officials warned that Russia could increase its drone launches to a thousand per day. The largest Russian strike package, per the ISW, consisted of 823 drones and missiles in early September of last year. More recently, on February 17, 2026, Russian forces attacked Ukraine using 425 aerial assault weapons. The scale of these attacks presents a severe challenge to Ukraine's air defenses and civilian infrastructure.

Russia also implemented moratoriums on energy strikes during March-April 2025 and January-February 2026, suggesting attempts to balance military action with negotiation efforts. However, despite these intermittent pauses, attacks have persisted, highlighting the ongoing regional tension. The continuation of strikes during diplomatic windows complicates the already fragile peace process and international mediation efforts.

The situation surrounding the conflict in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with regular Russian attacks occurring even during periods of international talks. This underscores the complexity of diplomatic efforts, as military escalation jeopardizes the potential for peaceful agreements. The international community continues to monitor developments closely, as the actions of both sides could significantly impact regional stability.