Russia Cannot Win the War, Says U.S. Official; NATO Is ‘Dead’ and Europe Needs a New Security Framework.

Battlefield Reality and Emerging Threats to Europe

According to TSN.ua: Former U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has stated that Russia is incapable of achieving victory on the battlefield. He pointed to Moscow’s repeated failures in Ukraine, noting that Russian forces have been unable to cross the Dnipro River or capture key cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. According to Kellogg, Russia has suffered between 1.2 and 1.4 million casualties—killed and wounded—highlighting severe setbacks in its military campaign.

A New Security Architecture for Europe

Kellogg also addressed the state of NATO, declaring that the alliance as it currently exists is effectively dead. He called for the creation of a new European security architecture—a pressing need given rising threats from Iran and the perceived inaction of European nations. In response to these challenges, Poland has already increased its defense budget.

Rising oil prices, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East, are indirectly benefiting Russia. Against this backdrop, Kellogg urged Europe to act decisively and take greater responsibility for its own security, emphasizing that the time for action has come. The global situation remains tense, and new challenges demand fresh approaches to security across Europe.

“The time for action has come.” — Keith Kellogg

Kellogg’s remarks underscore both Russia’s critical battlefield failures and the urgent need to rethink Europe’s security framework. Growing threats from other nations, combined with internal NATO challenges, point toward a potential evolution of global alliances and strategies. This context helps explain why individual countries like Poland are boosting defense spending, and why European states must take more proactive steps to ensure their security in the face of emerging threats.