The global homicide rate has decreased by a quarter: what lies behind the positive statistics.

The global homicide rate is declining, but why exactly? | SimpleImages/Getty Images

According to Vox: Among the positive news is the emergence of so-called 'narrative violations'. This occurs when widely accepted beliefs do not align with the actual data.

One of the common truths is the belief that 'a spike in violence is happening constantly'. A 2023 IPSOS survey showed that 70 percent of respondents believe that the world is becoming more violent and dangerous. In the US, most respondents have maintained the belief since the early 1990s that violent crime is on the rise.

However, the facts contradict this. Homicide data indicates that the world is becoming safer. For example, information from the World Bank confirms that between 2000 and 2023, the international homicide rate decreased from approximately 6.9 to 5.2 per 100,000 people. This signifies a reduction in the risk of homicide by about a quarter.

Why is this the case?

This phenomenon is not only Western. For example, Brazil, which once recorded over 50,000 homicides per year, has recently reduced this figure to approximately 44,000 in 2024, the lowest level since 2012, according to the Brazilian Public Security Forum.

However, the problem of violence remains relevant. In 2021, homicide rates in the Americas and Africa were significantly higher compared to Europe and East Asia. There is also a concentration of this violence in certain countries and cities.

Several factors contribute to this dynamic: improvements in government institutions, targeted patrolling, and socio-economic conditions. For example, rising stress in households is associated with increased violence, and reducing this stress, as practice shows, leads to a decrease in violence levels.

Another important factor is the aging population. Many studies indicate that homicides are more frequently committed by young people, thus, considering the aging of societies, the violence rate is gradually declining.

Looking at this data, one can see that the mechanism for reducing violence is at work. And although some believe that the situation is worsening, the facts indicate a gradual, albeit ambiguous, decrease in the likelihood of violence.

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In recent years, there has been a significant shift in global trends of violence. Although serious issues still exist in certain regions, the overall trend indicates a decrease in crime rates. This data can be useful in shaping violence prevention strategies at various levels. Understanding these processes may help in developing more effective policies and programs aimed at reducing violence in societies.