Kremlin's Calculated Move: Expert Analysis of the Abu Dhabi Trilateral Talks.

The Abu Dhabi Negotiations

According to TSN.ua: Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States were held in Abu Dhabi, resuming after a pause initiated by Moscow. According to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, these discussions do not represent a diplomatic breakthrough but are instead a tactical Kremlin maneuver. He suggested that Russia's willingness to engage could be an attempt to avoid a potential confrontation with a future administration led by Donald Trump. These talks occur within the broader context of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, which has drawn significant Western sanctions.

The negotiations took place against the backdrop of Moscow's rejection of all proposals put forward by Trump in March. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to these proposals, Russia dismissed them. In October 2022, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies 'Rosneft' and 'Lukoil,' a factor that also shaped the environment for the talks.

Pressure and Preconditions

Herbst emphasized that if one side is seen as an obstacle to negotiations, the Kremlin will apply pressure.

“If they were pressuring only one side, it would be the Ukrainian side,” - John Herbst

The expert believes that Putin has stated for months that if the Ukrainian side does not agree to his surrender terms, he is prepared to take further military action.

A key issue for discussion remains the status of territories, particularly the Donbas region. The United States has stated that providing American security guarantees is only possible following the signing of a peace agreement with Russia, which adds another layer of pressure on Moscow during these negotiations.

Therefore, in John Herbst's view, the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi serve less as a genuine effort to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict and more as a tool for the Kremlin to deflect pressure from the United States.

The Abu Dhabi negotiations reveal the complex dynamics between the key players, where Russia seeks to maintain control of the situation while the U.S. and Ukraine aim to uphold international norms and territorial integrity. Amid tightening sanctions and international pressure, the outcome of these talks could significantly influence the future trajectory of the conflict and the relations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia.