Will there be anyone to rebuild Ukraine? The Migration Service saddened by the post-war economy forecast.

Approximately 400 thousand Ukrainians may leave the country in 2025-2026

According to inkorr.com: Forecasts indicate that around 400 thousand people may leave Ukraine in 2025-2026, and only 30% of them are likely to plan to return. Despite the end of the war, the country may face a new wave of emigration, creating challenges, including the need to attract foreign workers for recovery. This was reported by 'Gromadske', citing the Office of Migration Policy.

"According to our estimates, only 30% of Ukrainians abroad may return. After the war's end, we may see low economic growth, leading to a new wave of migration from Ukraine. This could potentially concern up to 2 million Ukrainians. This will mean that foreign investments will be needed to restore infrastructure and businesses, but the main question is – who will work physically? We are already experiencing a labor shortage," said Vasyl Voskoboynik, head of the Office of Migration Policy.

The constant outflow of migrants and their slow return may lead to a labor shortage and an uneven distribution of work depending on sector and region. This, in turn, may hinder economic recovery, keep wages low, and exacerbate inflationary pressure.

The impact of Ukrainians abroad on the economy and the difficulties of returning

European countries are increasingly attracting Ukrainian workers, bolstering their economies. This may lead to an even greater labor shortage in Ukraine, reducing domestic consumption and negatively affecting GDP and inflation.

Ukrainians working abroad pay taxes and contribute to the economic growth of the countries that host them. For example, in 2024, their contribution to Poland's GDP growth was 2.7%. However, their earnings abroad are on average a third lower than local workers. Despite this, countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland receive more taxes from Ukrainians than they spend on their support.

Although Ukrainians actively migrate abroad, their contribution to the economy of host countries remains significant. At the same time, this increases the risk of labor shortages in Ukraine and may put pressure on inflation due to reduced domestic consumption.