Russia promises not to attack NATO: why new guarantees raise doubts.

According to ТСН: On December 22, Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, stated that Russia is ready to legally formalize its commitment not to attack countries of the European Union and NATO as part of a future resolution on ending the war against Ukraine.

Analysis of Kremlin's statements

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) closely examined these promises. Experts point to Russia's previous experience, which raises doubts about the seriousness of such statements. For example, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 guaranteed that Russia would respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for Kyiv's renunciation of nuclear weapons; however, these guarantees were significantly violated.

Changes in legislation

Furthermore, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to change Russian legislation to his advantage. The most striking example of this was the amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020, which allowed him to remain in power indefinitely.

The formal nature of promises

Analysts believe that such behavior from the Kremlin — violations of international agreements and manipulation of its own legislation — indicates the formal nature of Moscow's new promises. This underscores the need for real and reliable security guarantees for Ukraine that can prevent new attempts at Russian aggression in the future.

In this context, statements from the Russian side should be perceived more as a tool of political pressure amid possible negotiations than as a confirmation of readiness to adhere to international law.

It is worth reminding that earlier, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov commented on intelligence information about the intentions of the aggressor country's president Vladimir Putin to regain control over the territories of the former USSR.

These events highlight the importance of the current geopolitical situation. Kremlin's promises may turn out to be just an attempt to buy time in international negotiations, so it is clear that Ukraine needs real security guarantees given the uncertainty surrounding the actions of the Russian authorities and their relations with the international community.