Putin Would Only Order Mobilization if His Life Were in Danger, Analyst Claims.

The Unpopularity of Russian Mobilization

According to UATV: According to Russian political strategist Rostislav Murzagulov, a new wave of mobilization remains deeply unpopular, and President Vladimir Putin would only announce it if his own life were under threat. Murzagulov made these remarks during an interview with the FREEДОМ TV channel on February 9. He explained that Russia currently relies on a significant pool of individuals willing to join the army for money, many of whom are convicts recruited directly from prisons. This context highlights the Kremlin's reliance on non-traditional recruitment to sustain its war effort without resorting to a broader, and politically risky, national call-up.

Murzagulov estimated this group numbers in the hundreds of thousands. He stated that authorities essentially have to 'flush them out' of prisons, as they are 'acting under coercion.' This practice underscores the lack of public support for mobilization measures and the government's turn to forced methods to staff its military.

High Casualties and Their Impact

Compounding the manpower issue are severe battlefield losses. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that Russia is suffering between 20,000 and 25,000 soldier casualties per month on the front lines in Ukraine. These staggering figures illustrate the intense pressure on Russian military resources. In such a context, a general mobilization would likely be seen as a desperate measure, further explaining its unpopularity among the populace.

Murzagulov's analysis points to a profound crisis of confidence in mobilization within Russia, where society shows little willingness to support the war. Faced with catastrophic losses and public apathy, the Kremlin may eventually find itself cornered, with forced conscription as its only option to maintain military operations. These factors are likely to shape Russia's future policy in the conflict with Ukraine and test the country's internal social stability.