Russia enters 2026 without a strategic reserve: why this hinders the offensive.

According to ТСН: The Russian army begins 2026 without the capability to create a strategic reserve, which will affect the pace of its offensive on the front.

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with 'Suspilne' that Russia has already fulfilled its annual military recruitment plan, reaching 403,000 personnel by December 3, and this figure will exceed the planned volumes by the end of the year. Budanov also noted that the Kremlin plans to increase mobilization to 409,000 people in 2026 and will be able to maintain this number due to available resources.

Limitations of the Russian military

However, the strategic reserve that the Russian command relies on has still not been formed. Moscow is forced to constantly engage operational reserves in areas of intense combat, which hinders the accumulation of forces for a large-scale breakthrough. Rotation between sectors of the front exposes flanks, which Ukrainian units take advantage of. In particular, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) managed to regain some territories near Huliaypole and hindered the Russian offensive towards Dobropillia and Pokrovsk. The liberation of a significant part of Kupiansk became possible due to the lack of ready Russian reserves in this region.

The state of Russian forces in 2026

According to ISW estimates, Russian troops are unable to open new fronts and expand limited attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The shortage of personnel, despite the numerical superiority of the Russian population, remains one of the main obstacles to large-scale offensive actions in 2026.

'Russian troops are limited in the scale and pace of their offensive not only due to the lack of mobilized military personnel but also because the Ministry of Defense of Russia (MoD) has optimized the Russian military for positional warfare instead of focusing on restoring maneuver warfare. Currently, Russian troops are unable to conduct maneuver warfare on a scale necessary for a rapid offensive at the operational level. Moreover, they are unable to eliminate any of the factors that complicate their ability to advance quickly or significantly increase their current rate of advance,' ISW stated.

The head of the GUR also indicated that 2026 will be critical for the Russian budget due to high military expenditures. These factors may significantly affect the strategy and effectiveness of the actions of the Russian army in the near future.