The Nuclear Threat is Back: Is the World Ready for a New Reality.

According to Vox: Today, the world faces numerous threats that could lead to its end. Amid climate disasters, risks associated with artificial intelligence, and epidemics, we seem to forget about one danger that has existed for 80 years: the constant possibility of nuclear war.

However, nuclear war has not forgotten about us.

“Thanks to extraordinary luck over the past 80 years, despite numerous close calls, there has not been a nuclear explosion,” said Elizabeth Roven, Vice President for Communications at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), in an email. “All the concerns currently on Americans' minds can be overshadowed by instantaneous pressure or randomness.”

This makes the new film A House of Dynamite perfect for our time.

Director Kathryn Bigelow created the film for Netflix — it is already in limited release and will be available for streaming on October 24. The film consists of three acts and follows government employees, military personnel, and ultimately, the president (played by Idris Elba) during the approximately 18 minutes that pass from the moment a nuclear missile launch is detected over the Pacific Ocean to its arrival in Chicago.

Unthinkable

The day begins like any other. Colleagues flirt, argue, talk about sports, kids, and their pets. One of the senior officers (Rebecca Ferguson) in the White House situation room contemplates how nice it would be to propose to her long-time girlfriend. Everything seems fine until it doesn't.

But even then, it takes minutes for the tension to rise, and the unthinkable becomes possible. Soldiers at a remote base in Alaska initially suspect it's a North Korean missile that will land harmlessly in the Pacific Ocean.

A real nuclear attack would likely involve hundreds of missiles accompanied by misinformation. This is evidenced by the case of Soviet pilot Stanislav Petrov, who in 1983 understood that five American nuclear missiles heading towards the USSR were actually a false alarm caused by system malfunctions. His prudent decision not to report it to superiors could have prevented the retaliation that would have led to nuclear war.

The film references Petrov's situation. The U.S. launches its air defense system from that base in Alaska. One character states, “It's like shooting a bullet at a bullet. That will be the second most interesting thing to happen today.”

But the interceptor does not destroy the missile that relentlessly heads towards Chicago, a city of 10 million. Only later do senior officials learn that the defense systems meant to protect the country from such strikes have only a 61% chance of success. In reality, that figure is about 55% — and only under controlled conditions.

“So it’s basically a coin toss?” exclaims the Secretary of Defense (Jared Harris). “This is what we get for 50 billion dollars?”

That’s Plan A. And when it doesn’t work, there’s no Plan B.

As Roven noted, this shows that the nuclear defense system “requires perfection from people and machines 100% of the time. And that’s simply unrealistic.”

No One Controls the End of the World

The film A House of Dynamite illustrates that at this crucial moment in history, no one is in control.

While it’s hard to imagine Donald Trump having the unilateral power to order a nuclear strike, he and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth may find themselves powerless.

Experts, the president, and “the other side” — who mention discussions with the Russian Foreign Minister — all seem confused. It’s not a matter of skill or bravery; almost everyone is doing their job to the best of their ability.

In the end, we don’t even find out who launched the missile. Options considered include North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. The film does not clarify the nature of the attack — whether it was a deliberate strike or an accident, an isolated event or part of a coordinated campaign. I watch as my home on the outskirts of Chicago is destroyed. Even if the missile doesn't explode — that can happen too. But even if it doesn't destroy Chicago, the U.S. may retaliate, leading to nuclear war.

The uncertainty present in the film, while narratively frustrating, reflects reality. It’s impossible to succinctly assess the situation in the 18 minutes left until a meteorological missile strikes, just as the president can’t make a clear decision that quickly.

When faced with a choice regarding the escalation of responses — “soft, medium, well done,” — he states that he is ready to give the order. The consequences remain unknown.

The film emphasizes how our approach to nuclear threats has changed since the Cold War. In those “us versus them” days, things were simpler, although no less dangerous. The world has become multipolar. There are (at least) nine nuclear states to be monitored, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence heighten the risks.

“I hope this film will engage a new generation in nuclear issues,” Heather Williams, director of the Nuclear Issues Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote to me. “There are still thousands of nuclear warheads in the world, and some countries continue to threaten with nuclear weapons — the threat has not gone away.”

However, it’s not all doom and gloom: in 1986 there were 70,000 nuclear warheads. Today, there are 12,000 — that’s an 80% reduction in the total number of nuclear warheads in the world. Yet for the first time in 40 years, that number could rise again, as more countries seek to replenish their nuclear arsenals, and the verified arms control limits in Russia and the U.S. will expire in February.

So the situation is heading in the wrong direction.

“We need the same level of public discontent that led to the reductions and controls over nuclear weapons that made the world safer,” Roven said. “People have the power in this process — they just need to reclaim it.”

The argument for possessing nuclear weapons is that they can deter conventional war, which can be as destructive as World War II. But there cannot be deterrence in a world destroyed by nuclear apocalypse.