The war could end by April 2026: what is known about the secret negotiations.

According to ТСН: Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that between February and April 2026, there may be a 'window of opportunity' to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. He emphasizes that 90% of the negotiations remain secret for now. Politicians are discussing many matters that do not reach the public domain, and some of these secret agreements may be surprising.

Ending the war in Ukraine: what is being secretly discussed

'In any complex negotiations, in negotiations to end the war, there are always, I emphasize - always, without exception, two interconnected processes. They are not parallel, nor separate. There is a public part of the negotiations, the official one. For example, negotiations in Istanbul, in Berlin. So, even such negotiations are conducted behind closed doors. Not for the public, not for journalists. The latter may later report something,' says Fesenko.

Fesenko also points out the problems from both sides, from the American and Russian side.

'The problem is actually very serious. When the parties want to really agree, and then bring it to the public, for signing, the negotiations are maximally closed. Maximally. A simple example. After we were presented with Trump's peace plan in November, a leak appeared in the evening. It became known that the American side was very dissatisfied with the leaks. Note that after this, both sides adhered to strict silence to not interfere with the negotiation process,' says the political scientist.

He also explains that the negotiations between the U.S. and Russia are conducted by different people and not by a single curator. This can affect the entire negotiation dynamic:

'From the U.S. side, Steve Vitkoff initially led the negotiations with Russia, then Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner joined. This is one group focused on negotiations with the Russians. But now also with Ukraine. However, the official negotiations via the State Department are conducted by Marco Rubio, who has a slightly different position towards Russia than Vitkoff.'

Peace negotiations: risky consequences

'Closed negotiations are inevitable. We really do not know everything, but we can imagine the approximate 'red lines' - ours and what the Americans want,' continues Fesenko.

Fesenko emphasizes that there is a significant risk, as it is unpredictable how the negotiations between the Americans and Russians are proceeding. For example, the visit of Vitkoff and Kushner to Moscow received no assessments:

'Neither from the Russian nor the American sides. Except for the fact that the meeting was productive.'

According to Fesenko, there is a possibility that international players are discussing agreements outside of official documents, which could lead to serious consequences.

Ending the war in Ukraine: what conditions may be proposed

'The risk for us may be that we will be sold eternal peace in exchange for leaving Donbass. But unofficially, they may say that we (the U.S.) will not interfere with pressure on Ukraine,' states Fesenko.

He also notes that one should not rule out the possibility that such proposals may contain risks for Ukraine's territorial integrity.

When will the war end

Fesenko notes that there is currently no sense of an impending end to the war.

'As of today, Russia is not ready to end the war,' the expert assumes.

According to him, Putin will continue to wage war, believing he has the advantage.

'The 'windows of opportunities' for reaching peace agreements may occur in February-March. Moreover, including the possibility of concessions from our side. Otherwise, the likelihood of prolonging the war until summer or the end of 2026 will realize,' concludes the political scientist.

It is worth reminding that Xi Jinping has announced an 'acceptable to all parties' peace agreement, expressing China's readiness to play a 'constructive role' in the political settlement of the conflict.