Ukraine's population may decrease to 25 million: what new forecasts show.

According to ТСН: It is expected that by 2051, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 25 million people. Last year, the country became a leader in mortality rates, with the average life expectancy for men being only 57.3 years.

According to the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, before the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the population of Ukraine was 42 million, and now it has already decreased to less than 36 million, including residents of territories occupied by Russia.

Experts predict that by 2051 this figure will drop even further.

Mortality and Birth Rates

According to the CIA World Factbook data for 2024, Ukraine has the highest mortality rates and the lowest birth rates in the world: approximately three deaths occur for each birth.

Government assessments indicate that the average life expectancy for men in Ukraine has decreased from 65.2 years before the war to 57.3 years in 2024. For women, this figure fell from 74.4 to 70.9 years.

Ukraine's Demographic Strategy

The Ukrainian government has implemented a demographic strategy until 2040, attempting to prevent a crisis. The document states that Ukraine will face a shortage of 4.5 million workers over the next decade. The sectors most in need of workforce include construction, technology, and administrative services.

The strategy includes reducing emigration and creating favorable conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad, particularly improving housing, infrastructure, and education. It also plans to attract immigrants from other countries when job vacancies are available.

The government estimates that these measures could lead to a population growth to 34 million by 2040, but also warns that if the current trend continues, the population could decrease to 29 million.

Population Forecasts

The Center for Economic Strategy reports that about 5.2 million Ukrainians who left the country during the war remain abroad, mostly in European countries, including Russia, Germany, and Poland.

It is projected that between 1.7 to 2.7 million of these individuals will remain outside of Ukraine, and they may be joined by hundreds of thousands of adult men after the war ends, who are currently prohibited from leaving.

Independent analysts express concerns about further population decline: it is anticipated that by 2100, it could decrease to 9-23 million people, according to UN forecasts.

Recall that earlier demographer Oleksandr Hladun talked about how long-term war affects birth and migration rates.

The significance of these demographic changes for Ukraine is critical. The loss of population not only exacerbates economic and social challenges but also endangers the future stability of the country. The steps taken by the government to improve the demographic situation may play a key role in shaping a new reality for Ukrainian society in the coming decades.