How many people has Ukraine lost: when will the real figures be known.

According to ТСН: At this moment, it is impossible to accurately determine how many people Ukraine has lost due to Russian aggression. A clear picture will emerge only after the end of hostilities and a nationwide population census is conducted.

Alexander Hladun, the deputy director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography of the NAS of Ukraine, discussed this in an interview. He explained the difference between military reports and the actual demographic damage.

Why don’t we know the figures today?

In Ukraine, there is currently a regime of restricted access to demographic statistics. Since 2022, the State Statistics Service has stopped publishing mortality data by gender and age.

“This is strategic information. It allows the enemy to assess the effectiveness of their strikes and the overall losses of the country.”

The “demographic loss” formula

Demographers do not simply count the number of deaths. Their methodology includes three key components that together show the scale of the catastrophe:

1. Excess mortality: This is the excess of deaths over the normal level observed in peacetime. It is important to understand: if an elderly person dies of natural causes during the war — it is a death but not always a “loss from the war.” Demographers calculate the portion of the deceased whose deaths were caused by shelling, stress, lack of medical assistance, or front-line action.

2. Birth deficit: The war “steals” unborn children. Scientists compare the actual number of births with the predicted number (had there been no war). This creates a significant “gap” in the country’s future labor resource.

3. Migration balance: This is the difference between those who left and those who returned. The final loss based on this indicator can only be assessed when borders open and migration flows stabilize.

What’s next?

After the victory, Ukraine will face massive scientific work. Since the last population census was conducted back in 2001, specialists will have to engage in demographic reconstruction. This is a complex process of restoring the chain of events over the past 24 years to understand from which point we started in 2022 and where we are now.

“Only after the new population census can we honestly and scientifically substantiate the figure of Ukraine’s demographic losses.”

Thus, studying the demographic losses of Ukraine is a complex task that requires careful analysis. Despite the difficulties, researching these issues will help better understand the consequences of the war and develop strategies for the country’s recovery in the future. When peace comes and a new census is conducted, only then will we be able to assess the real scale of these losses.