Russia Will Not Be Able to Quickly Capture All of Donetsk: ISW Forecast Until 2027.

According to ТСН: The pace of the advance by occupying troops indicates that a rapid takeover of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin's claims of an allegedly 'inevitable success'. Russian forces are trying to focus on capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but their progress is very slow.

This was reported in an interview by Jessica Sobieski and Jenny Olmsted, researchers on Russia at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysis of the Situation at the Front

'Although since August 2025, the pace of the Russian advance has increased to an average of 9.3 km² per day (from August 15 to November 20), it remains slow. If this pace continues, along with the resilience of the Ukrainian defense and stable Western support, Russia could capture the remaining 22% of Ukraine-controlled territory in the Donetsk region by August 2027,' they noted.

The experts believe that the actual timelines will be longer, as the autumn pace of 2025 is partly influenced by seasonal weather conditions.

Challenges for Russian Troops

'The dominance of drones on the battlefield also prevents Russia from conducting the maneuver warfare needed for rapid operational breakthroughs. Russian forces have not yet faced large, heavily fortified cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and have not demonstrated the ability to quickly encircle or capture them since 2022,' the experts added.

It is worth noting that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that Russia has increased its troop group in Ukraine to 710,000 soldiers and has launched a strategic offensive operation.

President Putin claims that Russia has the forces and resources for an offensive at the front.

Given this situation, it is important to remember that forecasts and statements may change depending on developments at the front. The situation remains tense, and the further actions of both sides can significantly impact the situation in the region. Observers believe that providing the Ukrainian army with stable support from the West may become a key factor in countering Russian aggression.