Putin Prepared for 18 More Months of War: The Staggering Cost of Russia's Donbas Campaign.

The Situation in Ukraine

According to TSN.ua: Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to continue the war in Ukraine for at least another 18 months, with the goal of seizing control of the Donbas region. Western intelligence assessments indicate that Russian military casualties are substantial, and Ukrainian armed forces have also suffered significant losses. Over the past year, generals of the Russian Federation's General Staff have managed to capture only 0.8% of Ukrainian territory, equivalent to 4,831 square kilometers. The conflict has become a protracted war of attrition, with territorial gains coming at an immense human cost.

Since February 2022, the Russian army has lost approximately 1.2 million personnel, of which 325,000 have been killed. This figure is 17 times greater than the losses sustained by the Soviet army during the war in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Ukrainian armed forces are estimated to have lost between 500,000 and 600,000 soldiers, with up to 140,000 killed. The combined losses for both armies have reached 1.8 million people, and projections suggest this could climb to 2 million by spring.

Conflict Duration

Experts note that, according to intelligence and military service sources, 'each day of fighting and bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure only increases his advantage.' Furthermore, as noted by Daniel Szeligowski, Putin 'has no intention of making compromises.' This data points to a prolonged conflict with severe consequences for both sides. The Kremlin appears to be banking on its ability to endure losses that would be unsustainable for most nations.

The situation on the front lines demonstrates a staggering level of human loss and destruction, which carries serious social and economic repercussions for both countries. A continuation of the conflict for another year and a half could lead to further escalation of violence and complicate any attempts at a peaceful settlement. This also calls into question the resilience of the Ukrainian and Russian economies under the strain of a protracted war.