Expert explains why Putin is not interested in peace negotiations with Ukraine.

According to ТСН: Russia continues to create the impression of readiness for negotiations, but in reality, the Kremlin is not interested in ending hostilities. The 'game' in negotiations is needed by Moscow only to mislead the international community and the US administration, forcing Ukraine to accept the aggressor's ultimatums.

This opinion was expressed by analyst Andreas Umland from the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies.

Situation in Russia

The expert believes that the Russian leader finds himself in a situation where the end of the war poses a greater threat to his regime than its continuation. The economy and society of Russia are so militarized that shifting to 'peaceful tracks' could lead to collapse.

'The population and economy of Russia are so militarized that it is difficult to imagine how they will function after a ceasefire. The war has become a means of survival for the regime in the Kremlin, so it is unlikely they will agree to a proper peace,' explained Umland.

A swift ceasefire will become a problem for the Kremlin, as Putin relies only on one strategy — an endless war.

Umland notes that the economic situation in Russia has significantly worsened compared to the beginning of the full-scale invasion. While previously the aggressor showed growth due to military demand, this resource is now depleting.

'The situation for them seems significantly worse. There is no growth now. But their economy can still survive, particularly thanks to China,' he noted.

Analyzing the possibilities for peace, the expert emphasizes that the only path to real peace lies not through diplomatic efforts, but through strict military pressure on the front and increased economic sanctions that will deprive Russia of the ability to finance hostilities.

China's Interest

Another factor that contributes to Russian aggression is China's position. According to the analyst, Beijing is indirectly interested in the continuation of the war in Europe.

The conflict in Ukraine, in his words, is a convenient tool for the PRC, as it diverts resources and attention from the US and its allies away from the Pacific region, including Taiwan issues. While the West focuses its assistance on Kyiv, China gains time to prepare for a possible conflict of its own.

It is worth noting that 2026 may become a turning point in the war against Ukraine: either the active phase of hostilities will decline, or the conflict will enter a new, prolonged stage. Experts note that key international players realize that prolonged negotiations worsen Ukraine's positions.

It is also important that the Kremlin sets out several demands for the start of real negotiations, including control over Donbas, lifting sanctions, returning Russia to global politics, and influence over the Ukrainian authorities. At the same time, in 2026, a weakening of EU unity is possible due to business pressure to restore cooperation with Russia.

Experts warn: without clearly defined guarantees regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU and guaranteed funding, any peace agreement risks remaining only a declaration. Among forecasts, two scenarios can be distinguished: either peace agreements in the first half of the year or a new large-scale military campaign in the summer-autumn of 2026.

It is important to understand that the situation in Ukraine and around it remains extremely tense. The conflict continues to affect political and economic relations not only in the region but also on a global scale. Considering the positions of key players like the US and China, the further development of events can significantly change the map of international relations. Monitoring these changes is crucial, as they could have a significant impact on the lives of millions of people.