Iran on the brink of revolution: why the 2026 protests threaten the Khamenei regime.

According to ТСН: As of January 10, 2026, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is experiencing mass protests. The streets of cities are filled with demonstrators, and armed clashes have become commonplace. The current crisis is not just a coincidence and may lead to the fall of Ayatollah Khamenei's regime.

The situation in Iran

The Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Igor Semivolos, noted that a genuine revolutionary situation is unfolding in Iran.

"Protests in Iran are nothing new — we have seen them in 2019 and 2022 and earlier. The largest were the protests in 2009 during the Green Revolution. Today, however, the situation is unfolding precisely due to the political crisis within the leadership," said Semivolos.

Many political forces and elites are dissatisfied with the actions of Ali Khamenei, and this split is only deepening. Under certain conditions, the situation could spiral out of control, and attempts to resolve it could lead to further exacerbation of the crisis and the potential fall of the regime.

Preconditions for the protests

The protests in Iran erupted in late December in response to the economic crisis and the collapse of the national currency. According to human rights activists, the rallies spread to over 270 settlements in 27 out of 31 provinces of Iran.

One of the epicenters of the protests was the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. Witnesses report that security forces used tear gas to disperse demonstrators after merchants massively closed their shops.

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, during a televised address, stated that he would not back down, accusing the protesters of collaborating with opposition forces abroad and the U.S. The country's prosecutor threatened protesters with the death penalty.

Tensions increased after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned of a possible strike against Iran if violence was used against peaceful demonstrators. The U.S. is closely monitoring the situation and signaling readiness to intervene.

This gave the protesters confidence, but at the same time spurred the authorities to intensify repression, including shutting down the Internet nationwide. According to recent reports, over 60 people have died.

Events in Iran remain at the center of international attention, as they could significantly impact regional stability. Mass protests indicate deep dissatisfaction among the population with the existing regime, and developments could lead to significant changes in the country.