Predictions for 2026 from Vox Experts: What Awaits the USA, Ukraine, and the World.

According to Vox: For the seventh consecutive year, the Future Perfect team, together with experts from Vox, gathered at the end of the year to make predictions about key events in 2026.

In light of this year's events, these predictions may seem somewhat pessimistic. Will the USA remain an electoral democracy? Will the country survive a recession? Will there be a war over Taiwan? Will other states ban lab-grown meat? Will the country be flooded by a category 5 hurricane? Will Beyonce release a rock album? (This, perhaps, seems unlikely only to me—there are so many better options!)

As always, we try to avoid baseless assumptions. Each prediction is accompanied by a probability, so you can understand our confidence in these considerations. The idea is to demonstrate epistemic honesty—to be as transparent as possible about what we know, what we do not know, and what we do not definitively know.

As in previous years, at the end of 2026 we will return to these predictions and analyze how accurate they turn out to be—whether we really resembled Nostradamus or rather a group of blind monkeys throwing darts at a target. We hope you find it interesting to read—and don't forget to clarify your predictions.

The United States of America

The USA exits the ranks of liberal democracies according to V-DEM ratings but remains an electoral democracy (60 percent)

At the beginning of 2026, the state of American democracy looks confused.

Undoubtedly, in the first year of Donald Trump's second term, American democracy significantly weakened. He violated the constitutional limits of his power, persecuted political opponents, and neglected the protection of civil liberties. This is so serious that three leading scholars in comparative democracy—Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, and Lucan Way—believe that the USA has already transformed into an authoritarian regime.

However, there are no signs that Trump has managed to cement his power or significantly compromise the integrity of elections. Democrats won the 2025 elections, anti-government activists are operating freely, and the media, in most cases, remain independent and critical, as they were before Inauguration Day. When I spoke with Levitsky in December, he noted that Trump has failed in 'consolidating authoritarian power.'

For these reasons, I believe that the USA should still be considered a democracy, albeit significantly weakened. V-DEM, a leading academic metric of democracy, distinguishes between two classes of democracies—strong liberal democracies and weak electoral democracies. I predict that when V-DEM publishes its rankings for the past year, the USA will fall from the first category to the second.

Nevertheless, my confidence in this is low. What is happening in the USA is unprecedented for a global hegemon, and there is at least some credibility to claims of bias in global democracy rankings, complicating the ultimate conclusion.

Democrats will regain at least one chamber of Congress (95 percent)

If the previous prediction was complicated, this one seems obvious. There are at least five compelling reasons to believe that the Democrats are poised for a successful election.

• In modern American politics, the president's party typically performs poorly in midterm elections.
• The Democratic Party is gaining strength among voters with higher education, who tend to be more likely to vote in midterm elections, providing the party a structural advantage.
• Trump is an especially unpopular incumbent president. The only president of the 21st century with such low ratings at this stage was Trump himself, who suffered a major electoral defeat in the 2018 midterms.
• Democrats have consistently won elections in 2025, which bode well for their performance in 2026.
• Voter dissatisfaction is driven by a combination of high prices and the White House's weak response to policy issues in areas like immigration.

Given all these factors, Democrats have a high chance of regaining the House of Representatives—provided, of course, that there are no serious election manipulations or unexpected circumstances that change the political landscape. Although the Senate map looks challenging, they still have chances, considering the fundamentals.

At least one major function will remain in the Department of Education (70 percent)

The elimination of the Department of Education was one of the biggest stories at the start of Trump’s second term, as the administration laid off hundreds of employees, and Education Secretary Linda McMahon promised to guide the department to a 'historic final mission.'

Without support for a legislative initiative from Congress, it is difficult for the president to liquidate the department, but his administration has been redistributing some of its functions between other agencies since spring. In November, the White House announced that a possible largest shift of functions is underway, moving K-12 student support programs to the Department of Labor, while other functions have been transferred to the Departments of Health and Human Services, Interior and State.

However, experts have long warned that other departments lack the specialization to carry out the work of education employees, and already implemented changes are facing significant challenges.

The Trump administration has caused lasting damage to the department, experts claim. Yet the liquidation of the agency in practice is significantly more complicated than on a theoretical level. As Republican lawmakers begin to express concern, at least one function of the department is likely to remain by the end of next year.

The Supreme Court will rule against Trump in cases regarding tariffs currently before the court (70 percent)

So far, at least three federal courts have ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when imposing a wide range of constantly changing tariffs on imports.

It appears that the Supreme Court will join these three courts before the end of the current term.

Although the Republican majority of this Supreme Court has generally been loyal to Trump, the significant risk associated with the tariffs has raised some doubts among Republicans, who once again questioned the legality of the tariffs.

Some lawsuits challenging tariffs have been filed by civil rights organizations, including former Senator John Dunford. In November, Republican Justices Ian Ronsi and Neil Gorsuch again raised questions about their legality.

It is difficult to predict that this Supreme Court may sever ties with the Republican president. However, I assess the likelihood of Trump's victory as 30 percent. Even if he loses this round of litigation, he is likely to attempt to restore at least part of his tariffs, relying on other articles of legislation.

Trump will replace at least one Supreme Court justice by the end of 2026 (75 percent)

Trump is unpopular—according to recent Associated Press polls, his approval rating stands at 36 percent. His party suffered defeat in the 2025 elections. Republicans seem to have retained control of the Senate after the 2026 midterms, primarily because the Senate favors small states that vote Republican, even though the Republican Party is currently in a difficult position and may lose both chambers of Congress.

If the Democrats gain control of the Senate, they may block Trump from appointing new federal judges. This could mean that Jasper Alto, who is 75 years old, may apply to the Court.

Alto is one of the most emotionally charged members of the Court. If you are interested in more information about him, I recommend checking out my profile titled 'The Republican Party Man in the Supreme Court.' The gist is that he is often willing to accept arguments that even his fellow Republicans find abhorrent, as long as they align with the Republican Party or their favored political outcomes.

If Alto steps down while Republicans still control the Senate, he can be sure that his successor will be a Republican with similar views. He could even be replaced by one of his former legislative colleagues.

If Alto does not resign, he risks missing the chance to step down under a Republican president and Republican Senate. In the worst-case scenario (from his perspective), he may die while the Democrats regain control of the White House and the Senate, ensuring that his replacement will be his ideological opponents.

Among the second row, it is likely to become known that one of the fellow justices will resign or die. Justice Thomas is 77 years old, and Sonia Sotomayor is 71 years old. If any judge leaves the Court in 2026, the Republican Senate will likely confirm Trump's appointment to replace them.

However, there is a possibility that Alto and other Republicans enjoy their power so much that they will not want to give it up. But since Alto has always supported the party, it would be strange if he declined to give his party the best chance to replace him with a younger successor.

The World

Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister of Israel by the end of the year (65 percent)

Netanyahu has led the Israeli government for 15 of the last 16 years. He has survived accusations, criminal trials, coalition breakdowns, and of course the horrors of war in Gaza. Why should anyone bet on him in the 2026 elections (which are currently scheduled for October)?

The answer, in my opinion, is that he has been living on borrowed time since October 7, 2023.

Following the horrific event, Netanyahu's ratings fell, and many Israelis blame him for the successful attack by Hamas. His survival has depended not on voters but solely on coalition management. He has managed to prevent the escape of his right-wing coalition partners and early elections. But 2026 is an election year, and all signs indicate that his coalition lacks the necessary support.

'Netanyahu's government has failed to win a majority in any reliable polls,' leading Israeli sociologist Dalia Scheindlin told me last year.

However, Netanyahu should not be completely ruled out. There are scenarios in which he might survive despite apparent problems.

Currently, the best opposition party is led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. While Bennett is an opponent of Netanyahu, he is also a right-wing politician—and to form a government opposing Netanyahu, polls indicate that he may likely need to build a broad coalition, including left-wing and even an Arab party. It is easy to imagine Bennett may not be able to overcome the ideological divides of the opposition and agree to cooperate with Netanyahu, and perhaps prolonged coalition negotiations may allow Netanyahu to remain in power for a few months after the October elections, even if he is removed from office in 2027.

There are many uncertainties in this matter. But I lean toward the most consistent assumption: polls show that most Israelis are fed up with Bibi.

There will be no peace treaty negotiated between Ukraine and Russia that holds for 30 days until December 31, 2026 (60 percent)

The Trump administration has been actively seeking a peace deal over the past few weeks, and optimistic information has surfaced that the conflict could end by Christmas. However, the foundations of the conflict remain unchanged and complicate the possibility of ending the war in the coming months.

Despite the significant losses suffered by Russia and the damage inflicted on its economy by sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to believe in his victory and is unlikely to be satisfied with an agreement that does not limit Ukraine's sovereignty. It is even unclear whether a 28-point plan developed by his envoys would satisfy him.

On the other hand, Ukrainian leaders partially recognize that they are unlikely to be able to regain all the territory controlled by Russia through military force. But they are also unlikely to accept Trump's last demands to abandon their 'fortified belt' in eastern Ukraine, which would be self-destructive if Russia decides to resume the war in a few years. Although NATO membership is currently not on the table, Ukraine is likely to want to receive security guarantees from NATO countries, which are likely to be unacceptable to the Russian side.

Despite Trump's public attacks on Ukraine, the USA continues to support Ukrainian military forces with intelligence assistance and arms supplies (in many cases, paid for by Europe). Since last year, it has become evident that the pro-Trump position may be shifting.

Trump's success in achieving a peace deal for Gaza showed that such agreements can emerge much quicker than many expect. But for various reasons, the parties in the Ukrainian conflict are less prepared for pressure from the USA and less inclined to conclude the fighting. It is most likely that Ukraine will again face severe and destructive consequences of war.

From January 1 to December 31, 2026, China will not impose a full blockade on Taiwan or initiate a declared war (75 percent)

In 2021, Admiral Phil Davidson, then head of Indo-Pacific Command, informed Congress that he believed China was likely to try to achieve its ambitions for control of Taiwan 'in the next six years'. We are nearing that deadline, known in defense circles as 'Davidson's window'. But for now, war—or more specific aggressive actions—still seems unlikely.

The most important question in a potential military conflict scenario over Taiwan is whether the USA will intervene directly to defend the island. The best evidence that China plans actions is Trump's rhetoric and behavior, which do not confirm the USA's readiness to intervene. However, an amphibious invasion on a mountainous and densely populated island with hostile inhabitants leaves many questions, even if the USA does not intervene.

A blockade or quarantine may be more likely since Taiwan's economy is vulnerable, but the significance of the island for the global technology economy means the repercussions of a blockade would be immense and widespread. (One study predicted that a blockade of Taiwan would cost the global economy 2 trillion dollars). And the USA is not the only country that could step up to defend Taiwan: the new Prime Minister of Japan recently outraged Beijing by stating that the crisis surrounding Taiwan would pose a threat to Japan's survival, giving the country legitimacy to use its military.

Speaking plainly, Xi Jinping currently has a pretty good relationship with Trump, who is trying to enhance trade relations with China and has even agreed to sell advanced microchips that China has yet to request. China may be hoping for the possibility of a 'peaceful reunification'. The main opposition party on the island, the Kuomintang, now supports closer ties with Beijing.

We can expect more pressure on Taiwan and its support abroad. More efforts will be directed at blocking diplomatic contacts between Taiwan and the outside world and more influence and propaganda campaigns aimed at the Taiwanese population. Possible 'gray zone' attacks could also be directed at Taiwanese infrastructure, such as underwater communication cables.

Putin's decision to invade Ukraine showed that autocratic leaders can make risky decisions that appear illogical from the outside. However, if Xi is a bit more prudent, he is unlikely to dare to initiate a large-scale war or blockade in the coming year.

The Economy

At least two new states will pass laws that effectively cancel housing bans (zoning only for single-family homes) in most residential areas of the states (45 percent)

The last few years have witnessed the birth of a new paradigm in housing regulation and construction in the USA. Since the widespread implementation of zoning norms over the last century, local authorities—cities, suburbs, small towns—have determined what is allowed to be built, often in excessive detail.

Most residential land in the country is zoned exclusively for single-family homes—duplexes, triplexes, or apartment buildings are not allowed. As I noted last year, this is a core reason for the lack of affordable housing in America.

However, these rules are gradually, albeit slowly, starting to change. Many states have passed laws that begin to eliminate local barriers to construction, and zoning for single-family homes has become a primary target for reform. While this trend is technically a form of centralization, I think it is better to view it as a form of deregulation, empowering people to create new opportunities in communities.

California, Maine, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington now have laws that will require local governments to allow at least duplexes, and in some cases even more homes on plots designated for single-family homes. A few more states are considering similar bills, and perhaps there will be even more introduced this year.

These state-level zoning laws are often complex and contain exceptions needed to get legislative initiatives through local opposition. Thus, while I believe that in 2026 we may witness the passage of more laws to free housing development, my estimate of the probability that two new states will repeal zoning exclusively for single-family homes in residential areas is somewhat below 50 percent.

The total number of billionaires will exceed 17 trillion dollars, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions report (85 percent)

The grass is green. The sky is blue. The rich are getting richer.

Some things are just obvious. But in fact, the wealth of the wealthiest people does not always grow year by year. Take 2022 as an example when problems in the stock market caused billionaires worldwide to become approximately 2 trillion dollars poorer than the previous year.

However, since then, the extremely wealthy have only gotten richer. A new billionaire emerges every 37 hours in 2025, raising the total number of billionaires to nearly 3,000 and their total wealth to a record 15.8 trillion dollars, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions report. Many of them have prospered on the AI boom, while others are heirs whose inherited wealth increased by a collective 297.8 billion dollars last year as part of a large-scale wealth transfer that is only just beginning.

Unless someone bursts their bubble, the excessively rich will likely only grow richer in 2026. And if their wealth continues to grow at the rates being observed, it is likely that by the end of the year, UBS will report over 17 trillion dollars.

The USA will experience a recession in 2026 (55 percent)

Recession forecasts are the meteorology of the economy: everyone complains when you get it wrong, and no one expresses gratitude when you are right. But my estimate slightly above 50 percent is based on a real risk of the economy moving into its final phase. The list of plausible triggers—from an AI bubble burst to impacts of trade policy and much more—currently looks alarming.

Particularly alarming is that recent economic indicators suggest a potential recession. And if such a situation develops, it would pose a serious challenge not only for Trump but for American society as a whole.

This text illustrates that the Future Perfect team is trying to provide clear and straightforward predictions for the future, focusing on certain political and economic aspects, particularly regarding the state of democracy in the USA and its potential consequences. This information is useful for understanding the further development of events and could serve as a basis for analyzing effects that could have far-reaching resonance not only in Ukraine, but around the globe.