Hryvnia Could Hit 45 per Dollar: Analysts Forecast March Exchange Rates.

Ukraine's Currency Market in March 2026

According to TSN.ua: March 2026 has brought heightened turbulence to Ukraine's foreign exchange market. The value of the Ukrainian hryvnia is being shaped by the policies of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). Experts predict that the hryvnia may stay within a range of up to 45 UAH per dollar. As of March 20, 2026, the dollar stands at 43.96 UAH, while the euro is trading at 50.50 UAH. The official rate for the Polish zloty is 11.79 kopecks.

Drivers Behind Rising Currency Rates

Analysts point to a sharp increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have surged past $101 per barrel, as a key factor behind the currency rate hikes. Andriy Zablovsky, a finance expert, notes that the conflict in the Middle East has acted as a 'black swan' event, forcing the NBU to accelerate the hryvnia's depreciation by 3–4 months ahead of schedule. This highlights how external factors are heavily influencing the currency market.

• Rising oil prices
• Geopolitical conflicts

Another expert, Oleksiy Kushch, comments that

“for now, the hryvnia will stay within the horizon of 45”

Overall, March 2026 has become a month of active change in the currency market, where both the NBU's internal decisions and external factors remain critical in either supporting or undermining the hryvnia's value. Analysts continue to track developments closely, as exchange rate dynamics could substantially affect the country's economic stability.

The situation on Ukraine's currency market in March 2026 illustrates the complex challenges the country faces amid global economic fluctuations. Rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts demonstrate how external circumstances can significantly impact the economy, particularly the hryvnia's exchange rate. It is essential for the NBU's policies to adapt to these changes to ensure stability in the currency market and support Ukraine's economic growth.