Cocoa prices are falling: why chocolate in Ukraine is not getting cheaper.

According to inkorr.com: Ukrainians should not expect a decrease in chocolate prices, although the price of cocoa beans in the world is decreasing. This was stated by Doctor of Economic Sciences Bohdan Dukhnytskyi, emphasizing that global risks hinder production stabilization.

writes 24 channel.

The expert noted that the instability of the world market is due to drought and changes in plantation management in West Africa, which is the main cocoa producer. Although the price of raw materials has gradually decreased over the past few months, it has not yet affected retail prices.

How cocoa prices have changed

According to the data from the International Cocoa Organization, since the beginning of summer 2025, there has been a decrease in the cost of cocoa beans:

• June — over 9 thousand dollars per ton;
• July — less than 7 thousand;
• August — 8,163 dollars;
• Mid-September — about 7.1–7.2 thousand;
• October — 5.7–5.8 thousand dollars per ton.

However, chocolate in Ukraine continues to get more expensive. In January–September 2024, a ton of imported cocoa products cost approximately 6,250 dollars, and this year — already 9,457 dollars, which is 51% more.

When to expect stabilization of chocolate prices

According to Bohdan Dukhnytskyi, a balance between supply and demand may be achieved in 2026 due to increased production and reduced consumption following the current price peaks.

In the 2024/25 season, global cocoa production partially recovered — from 4.5 to 4.8 million tons. Market optimism is supported by increased production in Ecuador and favorable weather conditions in West Africa.

However, the expert warns: even if cocoa prices continue to decrease, consumers will not see the results immediately, since Ukrainian companies purchase raw materials under old contracts.

In Germany, unappetizing and harmful ingredients were found in a popular 'Dubai chocolate'.

Thus, despite the decline in world cocoa prices, Ukrainians may not expect significant changes in chocolate prices in the near future. Many factors, from world prices to internal contracts, affect the market, which can delay positive news for consumers.

It is important to monitor developments, as the continuation of the trend of falling cocoa prices may gradually affect the cost of chocolate in Ukraine, but this will certainly not happen quickly.