Ukraine Hit by Two Air Raid Alerts in One Day Over 'Oreshnik' Ballistic Missile Threat.

The 'Oreshnik' Missile Situation

According to TSN.ua: On February 12, 2026, Ukraine declared two nationwide air raid alerts due to the threat of a ballistic missile strike from the 'Oreshnik' system. This caused significant public alarm, as the 'Oreshnik' is a medium-range ballistic missile derived from the Russian RS-26 'Rubezh' complex. It is capable of reaching hypersonic speeds exceeding 12,000 km/h, making it an exceptionally dangerous weapon. The repeated alerts underscore the persistent and evolving nature of the aerial threat faced by the country.

As of January 2026, Russia possessed only an estimated 3–4 'Oreshnik' missiles. Oleksandr Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, stated that the launches were simulated, suggesting a potential psychological operation by the aggressor state. In a direct response to this threat, Ukrainian defense forces struck the 'Kapustin Yar' testing range in January 2026, demonstrating a readiness to counter provocations.

Expert Analysis

Commenting on the 'Oreshnik' threat, expert Ivan Stupak noted that when the missile is armed with a conventional, non-nuclear warhead, it separates into 6 blocks containing 6 parts each, totaling 36 individual munitions. He emphasized that this capability is largely intended for intimidation. Stupak also pointed out that the Patriot air defense system, which can intercept 'Kinzhal' missiles, is reportedly ineffective against the 'Oreshnik'. Given this vulnerability, tracking the movement of potential hazardous cargo becomes critically important.

Ivan Stupak: 'Let's imagine a scenario: somewhere on the outskirts of Lviv, a cargo shipment arrives from the western border. It stays for maybe two hours and then disperses. That's why, as soon as such intelligence is received, a strike is immediately ordered.'

These events highlight the severe threats confronting Ukraine and the necessity for constant vigilance and rapid response capabilities. In modern warfare, timely information and operational speed are decisive factors for national security.

The situation with the 'Oreshnik' missiles and the air raid alerts illustrates that military threats remain acute, requiring coordinated action and clear information policy. It is vital for Ukrainian authorities and defense forces to continue enhancing preparedness for potential attacks, strengthening air defense systems, and fostering close cooperation with international partners to secure necessary support and technology.