Oil Markets Crash as U.S. War with Iran Disrupts Hormuz Strait: Who Stands to Benefit?.

Latest on the U.S.-Iran Conflict

According to TSN.ua: Three weeks after President Donald Trump launched a U.S. military operation in Iran, global oil markets are already feeling the shockwaves. Iranian attacks have closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, triggering a sharp spike in crude prices. This disruption is creating new opportunities for Russia, which may gain from the evolving situation.

Notably, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Russian oil just one week after the strikes on Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a temporary waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian crude. These measures could boost Russia's budget, as 40 percent of its spending this year is earmarked for military and internal security needs.

However, Russia's budget deficit continues to widen due to economic sanctions imposed over the past six months. Amid global energy market instability, experts stress the importance of Russian oil for maintaining stability. As Kirill Dmitriev stated,

“without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable”

International Reactions

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declined Trump's request to deploy Japan's navy in the war against Iran. This indicates that not all nations are willing to back U.S. military actions, a factor that could reshape the regional political landscape.

The U.S. military campaign in Iran and its fallout on oil markets underscore the fragility of global energy balance, which may shift due to new sanctions and responses from other countries. Japan's stance, for instance, highlights growing caution among some allies toward supporting U.S. military initiatives, potentially complicating efforts to form an international coalition. At the same time, economic shifts tied to Russian oil could impact Russia's financial stability and its capacity to sustain military operations if the conflict escalates further.