Kyiv Prepares for Blackouts: Can Buses Replace the Metro and Trams?.

According to ТСН: In the event of prolonged power outages in Kyiv, there are plans to replace electric transport with buses. This scenario is included in the 'Plan B' for public transport developed by the Kyiv City State Administration.

Transport planning expert Dmytro Biespalov noted that in case of a blackout, when trams and trolleybuses stop, Kyivpastrans is ready to increase the number of buses on urban routes. If the metro stops, buses will partially duplicate certain sections of the lines.

Unknown Scale of Demand for Buses

The Kyiv City State Administration has not yet specified how many buses will be needed. This will be decided based on passenger flows and the situation. It also remains unknown whether there will be enough transport to carry people between the banks of the Dnipro River.

Transport Challenges Without the Metro

Biespalov explained that in case of metro closure, there will be a need to transport nearly a million passengers using ground transport. If trams and trolleybuses also stop, the number of passengers could increase by hundreds of thousands.

In his opinion, that amount of rolling stock is insufficient, and ensuring minimal intervals between buses will be physically impossible.

‘This is incredible and impossible. That is, this is such an amount of rolling stock that physically does not exist. It is not only impossible because there are not enough buses, but it is also not possible to ensure such an interval between buses. That is, the interval will go from 5-10 minutes, for example, to 40 seconds, 20 seconds, 10 seconds between buses. This is simply impossible,’ the expert explained.

Biespalov also noted that in the event of metro closure, work schedules for people will need to be changed to evenly distribute passenger flows over time. Restrictions on the use of ground transport for critically important enterprises may be introduced, as was the case during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The expert concluded that in the event of metro closure, the passenger flow of ground transport could approximately double, and unevenly — on specific routes, the load will be significantly higher.

He emphasized the seriousness of this problem, which is practically impossible to solve in a short time.

It should be noted that Kyiv will face a complex situation in the energy system this winter due to critical strikes on infrastructure. People's Deputy Oleksiy Kucherenko reported that the city remains in deficit in electricity supply following the damage to a key transformer substation near the capital, which made it impossible to obtain additional capacities.

Kyiv is largely dependent on the Rivne and Khmelnytsky nuclear power plants, and the risk of new strikes remains, so prolonged power outages are likely, although power engineers are trying to mitigate the schedules.

Thus, the situation with electricity supply in the capital remains critical. In the event of prolonged outages, it is important to ensure the ability to move around the city, as the stoppage of the metro could create significant difficulties for residents. Authorities are working on developing effective solutions, but there are still many uncertainties regarding the implementation of plans.