Trump puts pressure on Ukraine over Donbas: what conditions does the Kremlin impose.

According to ТСН: U.S. President Donald Trump, trying to reach a peace deal that has eluded him for a year, is pressuring Kyiv to hand over the entire Donbas to Moscow. This is necessary for a ceasefire agreement to take effect before Christmas. The Kremlin claims that hostilities will not stop unless Ukraine withdraws its troops, including from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Donetsk region.

However, as The Times notes, even if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to hand over this territory to Russia, the Constitution requires a nationwide referendum, which would be difficult to implement during wartime. The referendum procedure will not be needed if Kyiv withdraws its troops without recognizing Russian authority.

Russia's concessions

Analyst of the 'Come Back Alive' Foundation Mykola Belyeskov believes that some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may oppose the order to withdraw troops from the Donbas, which could lead to unpredictable consequences for national unity.

‘When Ukrainians are asked to make unreasonable concessions, it smells of national humiliation — especially for those who have fought for over 11 years,’ emphasizes the expert.

The Russian army has captured almost the entire Luhansk region and over 80% of Donetsk. Putin claims that his country will capture the entire Donbas if Ukraine does not surrender. However, The Times notes that while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are outnumbered and outgunned, Russia is likely to suffer heavy losses during the fighting for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

‘Even if you eventually lose [territory], it is better to make the enemy pay a high price than to create conditions for its next offensive. Retreating without a fight is politically complicated and militarily dangerous,’ said Belyeskov.

According to him, even if Ukraine concedes the Donbas, the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon its invasion.

‘From Russia's perspective, all these [U.S.-backed] plans do not pertain to actual resolution [of the war], but are about creating and exploiting divisions in Ukraine for another round of advancement, to further strengthen its negotiating position,’ the analyst believes.

Ukraine's position

This week, Zelensky received support from European allies; however, his authority has suffered due to a corruption scandal that led to the resignation of Andriy Yermak, who was considered the second most influential figure in the country.

The publication notes that despite Yermak's resignation, there are currently no signs that this has affected negotiations with the U.S.

‘Many are beginning to realize that Yermak's real political influence was greatly exaggerated,’ remarks political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

The American plan involved holding presidential elections in Ukraine within 100 days. Zelensky's first term was supposed to end in 2024, but the elections were postponed due to martial law. Trump noted in a comment that Ukraine is 'no longer a democracy' since elections have yet to take place.

Zelensky assured that the country is ready to hold presidential elections within the next 60-90 days if Europe and the U.S. help ensure security.

Trump hopes for the war to end before Christmas and has given Kyiv a few days to respond to the U.S.-backed peace agreement. Meanwhile, Zelensky claims that he is under pressure to make decisions regarding concessions quickly.

Kremlin's desires

Russia has repeatedly emphasized that the reasons for its invasion of Ukraine extend beyond territorial issues. Moscow's main goal is to eliminate the causes of the war, prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and limit the size of its armed forces.

Mykhailo Kasyanov, former prime minister under Putin, notes that the Russian leader is focused on achieving recognition of Moscow's rule over the entire Donbas.

‘That's why he wants the entire Donbas. It's about respect for him and his power, so that no one has any reason to consider him weak,’ Kasyanov said.

According to him, Putin seeks recognition from the West of Russian control over the entire Donbas.

‘Putin seems either not to pay attention to or is completely indifferent to the suffering inflicted on Ukrainians by Russia's invasion. When a week ago an Indian journalist asked him about the 'shock' experienced by Russian-speaking residents of the Donbas, whose lives were ruined by Kremlin forces, he replied, 'I did not understand the question, what were they shocked by?’,' The Times states.

Trump is reportedly aiming to reach an agreement before Christmas and is giving Kyiv a few days to make a decision.