After the war, only a third of forcibly displaced persons will return to Ukraine: demographers' forecast.

According to ТСН: Given the current situation, after the war is over, about 30% of citizens may return to Ukraine. In this context, safety, housing, job opportunities, and children's prospects are important issues. As practice shows, Ukrainians who left abroad with whole families have less chance of returning.

How many people will return to Ukraine after the war?

Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, shared her forecasts. Previously, experts hoped that 60% of Ukrainians would return to Ukraine, but now this forecast has been lowered to 30%.

"Once I was reproached: I used to say that 60% of Ukrainians would return home, but now — 30%. The question is: when did I say this? In 2022, when everyone thought the war would end soon, or at the very least — at the beginning of 2023, especially after the Russians were pushed away from Kharkiv. Then definitely more than half would have returned," explained the demographer.

Libanova noted that the situation has changed: destruction continues in Ukraine, and many people have already adapted to life abroad. The expert refers to the experience of the Balkan wars, where the return also amounted to about a third of the population.

What will make Ukrainians return home?

The demographer highlighted several key factors influencing Ukrainians' decisions to return to their homeland.

"The first, by a huge margin, is the safety factor. Not only the current one but also the assessment of the future. Unfortunately, the aggressive neighbor will remain near us. And there is a risk that in three, five, or ten years we will face a new series of conflicts. Neither we nor Europe are insured against this. But that's a different issue. So the security factor plays a huge role," explained Libanova.

Next important factors are housing and jobs. People who have their own apartments or houses have a better chance of returning.

"If housing is destroyed or non-existent, and there is at least somewhat decent housing available, even if rented, then the return is in question," added the expert.

Among other factors, prospects for children and the presence of relatives in Ukraine stand out.

"If the whole family left, the chances of returning are diminishing. But if part of the family (sisters, brothers, parents) remains here, then the probability of return exists," said the demographer.

Libanova hopes that the most qualified workers, such as doctors and lawyers, may return to Ukraine because their life abroad may be less advantageous due to dissatisfaction with working conditions.

"They work there, but not in their profession, and this does not satisfy them. Representatives of the service sector, like manicure artists, will not return — they earn more there," explained Libanova.

Currently, about 50% of Ukrainians abroad are ready to return. However, as the war drags on, this number may decrease. The main factors for return remain the end of hostilities, the ability to find housing, and jobs.

In the context of ongoing conflict, it is important to note that the situation among Ukrainian migrants may change. With the country's recovery and stabilization of the situation, the prospects for return may increase, especially for those who wish to restore their lives in their homeland. It is important to monitor the development of this issue, as legislative changes and support from the government can significantly influence Ukrainians' decisions to abandon living permanently abroad.