Army of 800 thousand after the war: can the Ukrainian economy withstand such expenses.

According to ТСН: After the end of hostilities with Russia, Ukraine will have an army that, in terms of combat experience and numbers, exceeds the armed forces of any European partner. However, maintaining such a large military force will pose a serious problem for the government.

Currently, to finance the Defense Forces, Ukraine spends about 30% of its GDP. Journalists provide an interesting comparison: the new loan from the EU of $105 billion corresponds approximately to all expected defense expenses for Germany next year. At the same time, the German army constitutes only a quarter of the Ukrainian forces, although salaries in the Bundeswehr are significantly higher.

Maintaining 800 thousand servicemen in peacetime will take a large number of working-age people from an economy that is already suffering from a sharp decline in population.

What should be the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Experts agree that maintaining the current number of troops is ineffective. Mykola Beleskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the optimal size of the army in peacetime should be 300–500 thousand people. Other trained fighters should be kept in reserve.

The analyst also notes that before the full-scale invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had less than 300 thousand personnel, which turned out to be insufficient to defend one of the longest borders in Europe.

The publication predicts that after the signing of a peace agreement, many Ukrainian military personnel will want to demobilize. Due to a lack of funds, it will be difficult for the state to maintain those who remain in service. Therefore, the defense strategy will likely change in the following directions:

• Relying on reserve forces.

• Using cost-effective equipment (drones, mines).

• Investing in air defense systems and long-range missiles.

What will have to be given up

Western experts advise Ukraine to be rational in spending. Michael Kofman from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warns against purchasing expensive weapons.

“The Ukrainian army should be based on more cost-effective means. Expensive elements, such as aircraft, can easily swallow a significant part of Ukraine's defense budget,” Kofman noted.

Former US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall also emphasizes that modern methods of deterring Russia are not a panacea in the long term. Building a full-fledged Air Force will require years to train pilots and build infrastructure, which will require stable and significant funding.

Recall that Oleksandr Syrskyi explained whether Ukraine can defend itself with an army of 800 thousand, as stipulated in the US peace plan.

Therefore, it is important for Ukraine to find a balance between the number of armed forces and economic efficiency. In the context of inadequate funding and population decline, the country will need to seek new approaches to defense to ensure its security in the future. This may require changes in strategic priorities and financial expenditures.