Brent crude could hit $200: How the Middle East conflict is reshaping oil markets.

Global economic fallout from the Middle East war

According to TSN.ua: The ongoing war in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the global economy, especially energy markets. Analysts warn that Brent crude could surge to $200 per barrel if hostilities persist until June, with a 40% probability assigned to that scenario. Currently, Brent trades around $110 per barrel, having peaked this month at $119.50. The all-time record for oil prices remains $147.50, set back in 2008.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which previously handled roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined products daily—has triggered a sharp spike in oil and fuel prices. If the strait remains shut for an extended period, prices will need to climb high enough to destroy historically massive global oil demand, according to market analysts.

Diplomatic moves and their ripple effects

Diplomatic maneuvers by the United States and Israel are also shaping the trajectory. U.S. President Donald Trump has delayed the deadline for strikes on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days. He is also weighing the deployment of American ground troops to Iran’s Kharg Island, located roughly 26 kilometers off the Iranian coast. Meanwhile, Israeli officials, including Israel Katz, have warned that Israel’s attacks on Iran will only intensify and expand, with Tel Aviv vowing to systematically target the leaders of the hostile regime.

The outlook for the Middle East remains highly uncertain, but one thing is clear: the war is taking a heavy toll on the global economy, particularly energy markets. Rising prices are already evident, and the consequences could be far-reaching for global oil demand and energy security.

As oil prices climb amid geopolitical instability, energy-importing nations may face mounting economic strain. Higher oil costs can fuel inflation, raise energy expenses for both industry and households, and disrupt international trade. This underscores the critical need for diplomacy and strategic resource management during global crises.